Russian ministry of defense and FSB confrontation turns to stormy

Earlier we predicted that the presidential elections in Russia will provoke a conflict inside the political elites.Our assumptions have been confirmed.

Over and over again we witness another round of conflict arising between the country’s leadership and the military high-rank officials represented by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

FSB officers have detained Russian deputy defense minister Timur Ivanov for allegedly taking a bribe.

In addition, Svetlana Strigunkova, former First Deputy Governor of the Moscow Region Andrey Vorobyov, a key figure of ‘Shoigu’s team’, has been arrested on suspicion of taking bribes. Thus, the confrontation between Russian FSB team (Nikolai Patrushev) and Ministry of Defense group which has been observed since 2014, is escalating. We are convinced that after Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion in October 2023, the head of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, took over a significant part of presidential powers and began forming his own vertical as opposed to the influence of Vladimir Putin. Sergei Chemezov, former KGB spy and close ally to Putin, is also in Patrushev’s team. Shoigu, who used to have influence on President Putin during 2021-2022, after Patrushev’s position strengthening, tried to stay neutral and save his own positions in the new configuration of power in the courty. Ultimately, Shoigu lost the trust of the new beneficiaries, Patrushev-Chemezov, who are trying to benefit the maximum from controlling financial flows allocated to sponsor the war in Ukraine.Thus, it provoked an attempt to partially ‘melt’ Shoigu’s team by weakening his influence and kicking his protégés out of key positions in the defense sector financial schemes. 

• Such a scenario once again shows that the conflict between the Ministry of Defense and the FSB will be on the rise. Probably, Nikolai Patrushev does not see Shoigu as his confidant, and the level of political influence of the Minister of Defense does not suit the actual head of state, who sees the government system in Russia within the framework of the Soviet model controlled by the KGB (FSB). 

As for a former security officer, military decisions and way of thinking are unacceptable for Patrushev. For this reason, Patrushev will distance Shoigu from the domestic decision-making process. At the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine the actions of the Minister of Defense hit Russian interests badly and made the level of corruption in the defense sector so high that achieving planned goals within a certain time period was impossible. The Kremlin needs to find the responsible for the failures and losses in the war in Ukraine, and the Shoigu group looks perfect for this. However, we estimate, in case of being interested, the Patrushev-Chemezov group could achieve Shoigu’s resignation. The absence of such a decision means that the fight will be probably directed on financial flows controlled by the Ministry of Defense. It means that the Kremlin will be more active in disavowing corruption schemes in the ministry.

If Patrushev decides to make a move by appointing his son to the post of prime minister, he will need to look for a financial resource, which he can receive by redirecting the Ministry of Defense funds.In this case, the Kremlin will be interested in strengthening the new power configuration in the country, which requires a fund redistribution in favor of the security team. If it happens we should expect resignation of Minister of Internal Affairs Vladimir Kolokoltsev.