Russian sabotage activity in Europe: NATO gets reasons for implementing Article5 of the Treaty

Russia has been changing its tactics in the West from conducting hybrid
operations to acts of sabotage. Thus, NATO countries has received a reason to
implement Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.
We are convinced that the explosion at the Mesko defense plant in Skarzysko-
Kamienna, Świętokrzyskie Voivodeship in south-eastern part of Poland, was Russians’
sabotage aimed at weakening Poland’s defense potential. The Kremlin wants to
paralyze Warsaw’s ability to resist an armed conflict with Belarus, as well as
minimize Poland’s military aid to Ukraine. Such a sabotage act reminds the Russian
attack on ammunition depots in Vrbetica on October 16 and December 3, 2014. The
warehouses stored ammunition from a Czech company that supplied weapons to
Ukraine. We think that the sabotage in Poland is a part of the operation that also
comprises self-inflicted explosion in a hotel room in Roissy-en-France
municipality. The act was intended to destroy French military equipment supplied
for the Ukrainian army. Prior, we drew attention to the sabotage risks on railways
transporting defense ammunition.
We estimate that Russian military intelligence and a unit that has been already
mentioned in the context of active Russian operations in Europe are behind all
these sabotages.

It is revealing that the Russians refrained from conducting such aggressive operations
even during the Cold War, then they acted with the help of friendly terrorist
organizations in Europe. However, the use of its own military intelligence units for
sabotage activity in the West signals about the Kremlin leadership’s being pushed into
the corner and operating in limited maneuver conditions.
Although, despite this, we doubt that the Kremlin can use unconventional weapons
to escalate the conflict. However, we consider the likelihood of more frequent
sabotage and terrorist acts, primarily in Europe, is pretty high. The arrest of a
Chechen citizen who was preparing a terrorist attack during the Olympics in France also
proves our opinion. We are convinced that the Kremlin and the Chechen
leadership, which controls the Chechen diaspora in Europe and uses them for
military operations, are behind this attack organization.
Europe’s poor responses to Russian sabotage operations will be definitely taken
by Moscow as weakness and a clear signal to expand and radicalize these
operations.
Therefore, without responding militarily, the best reaction to the Kremlin’s sabotage
activity in Europe would be selective attacks against the Russian diaspora.