Discontent is growing within the Kremlin elite towards Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR). His public statements are increasingly filled with disinformation, which has become apparent to many within President Putin’s inner circle.
There are discussions about disbanding the SVR and transferring its assets to the Federal Security Service (FSB), effectively reverting to a KGB-like model. Proposals to merge these agencies were already considered during the 2020 amendments to the Russian Constitution, and now the Kremlin might be revisiting the idea.
Since 2022, Russia’s foreign intelligence operations have been characterized by wishful thinking rather than reality. This behavior from the SVR’s leadership reflects deep-seated insecurity about retaining their positions, especially in light of significant losses in overseas intelligence assets following the mass expulsion of Russian spies working under diplomatic cover. Naryshkin has notably lost influence within Putin’s circle since the invasion of Ukraine.
More on this story: How dynamically the influence of Putin’s close circle changes
It is increasingly evident that the SVR’s claims point to a loss of HUMINT assets, forcing the agency to simulate the acquisition of intelligence and inflate the credibility of its sources. This raises doubts about whether Russia’s foreign intelligence truly serves the Kremlin’s interests.
In March 2024, Naryshkin claimed that France was preparing to send 2,000 troops to Ukraine, a statement that turned out to be disinformation. In its latest public announcement, the SVR suggested that discontent with Zelensky is growing within the American elite, and that the U.S. is searching for his replacement. However, Russian intelligence likely does not have access to information of this level, and such a notion seems absurd ahead of the U.S. elections.
More on this story: Kremlin waging campaign to delegitimize Ukraine
It’s plausible that Moscow is attempting to sow panic in Kyiv, but Ukraine’s level of contact with the Biden administration is significantly higher than Russia’s. Consequently, Kyiv is likely to perceive the SVR’s statement as disinformation.This leads to the conclusion that Naryshkin may be misleading the Kremlin, attempting to align its propaganda narratives with supposedly gathered intelligence. By doing so, he appears to confirm the conspiracy theories and speculations that dominate the Kremlin, particularly those held by figures with significant influence, such as Nikolai Patrushev.This may be a strategic move by Naryshkin to strengthen his position and ascend further within the power hierarchy, in line with his ambitions.
More on this story: Chief of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia: psychological profile
