Sudan’s civil war has become one more pivotal theatre for geopolitical rivalries as foreign powers compete for influence in the strategically vital Red Sea region.
Sudan’s location offers a chokehold over one of the world’s most crucial maritime trade routes, the Suez Canal, making it a highly coveted target for foreign interests.
In March this year, Iran reportedly offered to set up a naval base in Port Sudan, a request that, if approved, would have given Tehran another crucial foothold in the Red Sea.
Despite the Sudanese military’s rejection of the offer, there are concerns over Iran’s role in supplying the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) with cutting-edge drone technology and its broader ambitions to monitor maritime activities near Israel and across the region.
Russia has significantly increased its involvement, offering what it terms “unrestricted qualitative military aid” to Sudan’s government. Such interventions will likely extend the conflict and disrupt the region’s stability.
After the revolution, several power centres emerged, each looking to establish control, and foreign powers seized the opportunity to back different factions.
Civilian leaders in Sudan had been striving to establish a transparent foreign policy to help the country overcome its isolation. However, Sudan’s military rulers have chosen a different path.
Both SAF and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) leaders have actively sought alliances with foreign actors, including the UAE, Egypt, Russia, Iran, and even Israel to consolidate their hold on power.
Each faction in Sudan exploiting its natural resources, chiefly gold and land, to fund the war.
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The Red Sea is now at the centre of intense international competition, and the risk of wider conflict looms is growing.
While Russia and Iran are assisting Sudan with equipment and weapons, direct military intervention is still unlikely.
Establishing foreign military bases remains a precarious move due to Sudan’s unpredictable foreign policy and lack of a coherent strategic direction.
Iran’s desire for a naval base in Port Sudan would have allowed Tehran to closely monitor the Suez Canal and Israel’s southern flank. Though the Sudanese military turned down the proposal, Iran has not wholly stepped back.
Iran remains keen on establishing a naval facility in the Red Sea but faces obstacles due to Sudan’s ties with Saudi Arabia.
Sudan’s alignment with Riyadh is a major factor in why the base proposal was rejected.
Allowing foreign military bases from non-riparian states could lead to the Red Sea becoming a flash point for conflict.
While Russia faces constraints in how much support it can extend to Sudan – given its ongoing war in Ukraine – it has already laid significant groundwork in the country because Moscow had already strengthened its foothold in Sudan even before the conflict erupted, mainly through the paramilitary Wagner Group.
Wagner mercenaries supported the RSF, supplying military aid and training.
“Russia’s involvement in Africa is about leveraging its military capabilities to extract natural resources. “The Wagner Group
Russia’s deepening ties with Sudan’s gold industry have provided Moscow with a resource to sidestep Western sanctions imposed after it invaded Ukraine. Wagner reportedly delivered military trucks, amphibious vehicles, and transport helicopters to Sudan, which helped solidify Moscow’s access to gold reserves, a critical resource for funding Russia’s war effort, according to Baldo.
Russia used to be exclusively supportive of the RSF, but now the situation has changed, as Moscow now supports SAF too.
Moscow is now offering allegedly unlimited” military assistance to Sudan’s Islamist-aligned armed forces led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.
Iran and Russia would need to maintain the supply of advanced drones equipped with night vision and precision-targeting capabilities to the Sudanese army.This is the kind of support that could shift the conflict, much like what the UAE provided in Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict. But as of now, no similar ally has stepped forward for the RSF.
More on this story: Iran and Russia are spurring Sudan to become hostile towards the U.S.
