Russia Prepares to Transfer Remaining Equipment and Ammunition from Syria to Ukraine

In the aftermath of the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the rapid advance of rebel forces deep into Syrian territory, Russia is grappling with the challenge of evacuating military assets stationed at its bases in the country.

With its military resources in Ukraine severely depleted, the Kremlin’s priorities have shifted. Moscow now appears ready to abandon Assad’s regime and instead focus on preserving its military footholds under the potential leadership of a new Syrian government.

A Strategic Pivot in Syria

For the Kremlin, retaining influence in the Middle East hinges on maintaining its military bases in Syria. However, securing this goal will likely require agreements with a new government in Damascus—one that is unlikely to align with Moscow after years of Russian backing for Assad’s Alawite regime and the devastating bombardments of rebel strongholds.

In a marked shift, Russian rhetoric regarding Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has softened. While the group was previously labeled as “terrorists,” Kremlin-aligned media now refer to them as the “armed opposition” following the fall of Aleppo. This signals Moscow’s recognition that securing its military presence in Syria may depend on normalization with new actors in power—a process likely to take time.

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Evacuations and Risks

Rebel forces have reportedly seized samples of Russian weaponry, a scenario anticipated by the Kremlin. This risk was a key factor in last week’s withdrawal of Russian naval assets from Tartus and the evacuation of air units from the Khmeimim Air Base.

Despite this, it seems improbable that Moscow would engage in indirect arms transfers to rebels as a means of gaining their favor, as it reportedly did with ISIS during the withdrawal from Palmyra.

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Logistics for Ukraine’s War Effort

Faced with severe shortages of equipment and ammunition for its war in Ukraine, Russia is likely to repurpose remaining military assets from Syria. The probability of transferring this matériel to the Black Sea, to support operations in Ukraine, is assessed as very high.

However, logistical challenges loom. The Ukrainian military’s precision strikes on Russian port infrastructure have significantly reduced the availability of large landing ships previously used to supply Russia’s forces in Syria between 2015 and 2018. As a result, Moscow may revert to using civilian vessels—similar to past shipments by Oboronlogistika, a state-affiliated logistics company.

This tactic could allow Russia to circumvent the restrictions imposed by the Montreux Convention, which limits the passage of warships through the Bosporus and Dardanelles. On December 9, Russia had reportedly planned to send an Oboronlogistika vessel Sparta loaded with 41 FEUs (Forty-Foot Equivalent Units), 77 TEUs (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), and 22 pieces of equipment and general cargo from the port of Baltiysk to Tartus. However, the shipment was abruptly canceled later that day, possibly reflecting shifting operational priorities.

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Diplomatic and Legal Implications

Given the high likelihood of transferring military assets from Syria to Ukraine, Moscow may press Turkie to breach the Montreux Convention by allowing arms-laden ships to pass through its straits into the conflict zone.

Such a move would place Ankara in a precarious position, balancing its commitments under international law with its complex relationship with Moscow. It also underscores the growing entanglement of Russia’s Syrian and Ukrainian campaigns, with resources and priorities now converging in the face of strategic setbacks on multiple fronts.