Dodik may hide in Serbia; BiH on the verge of collapse

The security situation in the Balkans has deteriorated, with Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) facing its most severe political and security crisis since the end of the war in 1995. The state, composed of three entities, is under threat as the autonomous region of Republika Srpska (RS) has banned the state police and judiciary system. This comes in response to Milorad Dodik’s conviction for undermining the constitution. The Sarajevo court sentenced Dodik to one year in prison and imposed a six-year ban on holding public office for opposing the decisions of the international peace envoy, Christian Schmidt. However, this decision is not final, and Dodik has the right to appeal. Instead of filing a complaint, Dodik responded by enacting laws that prohibit the judiciary and state police from operating in RS.

Immediately following the verdict, Dodik gathered RS citizens and delivered a speech as provocative as his previous ones. Among other statements, he vowed to resist surrender with the support of Russia and emphasized the backing of the Serbian people. He hinted at asking Russia to veto the extension of the European peacekeeping mission in Bosnia at the United Nations Security Council meeting scheduled for November. He also invited his ally, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, to visit Banja Luka, a request that Vučić promptly accepted.

Last week, the president of Republika Srpska ignored a state-level arrest warrant. The Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina has since issued an international arrest warrant for Milorad Dodik, along with RS Prime Minister Radovan Višković and National Assembly Speaker Nenad Stevandić, all accused of unconstitutional conduct. Dodik’s long-standing attempt to subjugate BiH’s national institutions or even separate RS from BiH has reached a critical point. His rhetoric is not new—he has frequently advocated for RS’s separation and has consistently denied the genocide in Srebrenica, even after the UN Security Council passed a resolution classifying the massacre as an act of genocide by the Yugoslavian army. The European Union has repeatedly condemned Dodik’s inflammatory and divisive rhetoric, urging him to respect BiH’s sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity.

Backed by his allies in the Balkans—Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán—Dodik has advanced Russia’s destabilizing agenda in the region. His current efforts aim to renegotiate agreements he previously accepted under the Dayton Accords, which were designed to end the war and establish BiH’s governing institutions. Recent developments suggest that the crisis in BiH was orchestrated from Belgrade, with Vučić offering almost daily support to Dodik. Dodik has cultivated a perception among RS’s Serbian citizens that he is their protector. However, in the best-case scenario, RS citizens themselves should hold him accountable. A multimillionaire leader, sanctioned by the US and condemned by his own country, is doing no favors for the Serbian people in BiH. While Dodik remains trapped in the past, 30 years of peace in Bosnia are at risk.

As the international constellation is not quite positive, Dodik has revived the conflict in BiH in the hope that the administration of President Donald Trump will favor the Serbian separatist agenda. NATO chief Marco Rubio, during a recent visit to Bosnia and Kosovo, said that Dodik’s actions are undermining Bosnia’s institutions and threatening its security and stability, calling on US partners in the region “to join us in pushing back against this dangerous and destabilizing behavior. While this statement was a blow to Dodik, the bigger challenge for the US and the EU remains preserving the Dayton Accords. BiH institutions are taking cautious and responsible measures in addressing the Dodik issue. SIPA, the state police agency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, has played a limited but supportive role in recent operations alongside the Border Police in Republika Srpska to de-escalate tensions.

Meanwhile, Dodik’s supporters, Vučić and Orbán, are facing domestic challenges, as citizens in their respective countries fight corruption and authoritarianism. The Kremlin-style repression of protesters in Serbia and Hungary could soon be mirrored in RS. While Dodik has never faced a more precarious political situation, his 19-year reign, marked by US sanctions and a conviction for constitutional violations, is unraveling. The trust of BiH’s Serbs in him is waning, and if anyone is to blame for their current predicament, it is Milorad Dodik himself.

Reports suggest that Dodik is hiding in Serbia, while others speculate that he has fled to Russia. Regardless, he must return to face justice for the destructive policies he has imposed on his own people. Serbia is the more likely refuge, as it has become a safe haven for criminals. For over a year and a half, Serbia has harbored Milan Radoičić, the orchestrator of the Banjska attack in Kosovo, which was backed by the Serbian state. Despite accepting responsibility for the attack, Radoičić remains in Serbia, treated as a hero.Three decades after war tore Bosnia and Herzegovina apart, its already fragile peace is under renewed threat. Milorad Dodik’s defiance of state authority has escalated tensions, creating a political deadlock many views as the gravest challenge yet to the Dayton Accords. While the US and EU are unlikely to allow another full-scale war, the risk of internal conflict, with potential casualties, remains high. The EU’s next steps remain uncertain—will it push for a review of the Dayton Accords or consider replacing Dodik with another RS representative in the tripartite presidency? The immediate solutions are limited. One thing is clear: the international community has tolerated Dodik’s actions for far too long. As a result, BiH will likely remain in a state of paralysis for the foreseeable future. However, one thing is certain—this marks the end of Milorad Dodik’s political career. The European Union will not allow itself to be embarrassed in Bosnia and Herzegovina again. While another occupation-style war is unlikely, ethnic conflict and violence remain real possibilities. The cause of this instability is clear—the separatist leader of the Bosnian Serbs, Milorad Dodik.