Russia’s ongoing influence and reputation losses and dominance of Moscow own interests over partnerships provoke increasing anti-Russian sentiment in a number of countries, in particular, Armenia. The Kremlin has been losing allies cause it has been monopolized the use of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and double standards in building relations in the Caucasus region. Russian intentions to protect and increase its influence jeopardize political stability and security for the countries that could lose their sovereignty.
During an in-person press briefing Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that Russia’s military presence jeopardized his country’s security, ‘The military presence of the Russian Federation not only does not ensure the security of the Republic of Armenia, but also creates a threat to its security’. As he stated, now Moscow and Yerevan are negotiating the role and significance of Russia’s military presence on the territory of Armenia.
Prior, an anti-Russian rally was held near the Russian 102nd Russian military base in Gyumri. The participants called for the withdrawal of the Russian military base. According to the rally organizers, ‘Armenia was occupied by Russian troops represented by the 102nd base’.
Based on unconfirmed information, the data from the General Staff and the Ministry of Defense of Armenia was passed through the Kremlin and Russian Intelligence to the Turkish side. The intelligence information exchange between Russia and Turkey allowed Ankara to discredit the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. Thus, now Putin helps Erdogan enter the sphere of his interests in the Caucasus.
Baku believes that Pashinyan’s words are addressed to those Western countries that do not support Yerevan’s intentions to take revenge in the war against Azerbaijan.
The Armenian leadership made the conclusion that Russia will neither help Yerevan in its military confrontation with Azerbaijan not participate in the military escalation in the South Caucasus. In December 2022, Pashinyan stated that the Russian ‘troops’ introduced into Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 had not fulfilled their functions and had lost control over the key road connecting the Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan and the country’s territory.
In this context, Pashinyan is looking for alternatives to replace the Russian military contingent with the troops of Western countries that support Yerevan, primarily France.
Despite the fact that Yerevan’s anti-Russian speech is mostly motived by dissatisfaction with the Kremlin’s ignorance of its CSTO obligations, Pashinyan is aware of the Kremlin’s support for the opposition in Armenia and intentions to topple his government. There is still a possibility that in case of the next losses and failures in Ukraine, the Kremlin may implement the scenario to drag Armenia into the union project as part of the revival of the Soviet Union. Supposedly, it should partially compensate the Putin regime for the political damage from failures in the war in Ukraine.The Kremlin sources report about Putin’s negative attitude towards Pashinyan, mostly, because of the way he was brought to power: he was elected as Prime-Minister following the 2018 Velvet Revolution, the uprising, which according to Moscow was organized by the West. The denial of society’s desire for democracy and the Kremlin’s conspiracy clearly show how much the regime is afraid of losing power in case of a public unrest.
