The Ethiopian government intends to integrate all regional special forces – either into the national army or the federal or regional police.
The move will likely be perceived as an attempt to diminish the autonomy of individual regions and to minimize risks of repeating the Tigray case. It looks like PM Abiy being ethnic Oromo tries to restrain Amhara’s expansionism according to Oromo-Amhara ethnic tensions. But this move will contrary rise conflicts among communities and groups, cause they turn to install insurgency-style units to defend their interest.
According to the Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the decision is not disarmament, but that the forces will get more training and weapons and will be reintegrated into other security structures, where they can better serve the country.
Ethiopia finalised a ceasefire with the Tigray region in November 2022, after a two-year-long war that began in November 2020. An interim government was established for the Tigray region in March 2023.
Ethiopia’s constitution allows its states, drawn up along linguistic and cultural lines, to operate their own regional police forces. But over the last 15 years, some states have gradually established their own “special forces“, acting outside these constitutional constraints.
We think the stimulus for government decision arose from clashes between national and regional forces and Amhara Special Forces’ units brought about by a refusal of the latter to surrender weapons as part of the integration process. Amhara forces backed Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal troops against rebellious forces in northern Tigray when conflict erupted there in 2020.
However, the conflict in the Tigray region quickly drew in other national and international actors, including Eritrean forces and also regional defense forces, most notably those from the Amhara region. The mounting concerns over Amhara’s increasingly independent armed groups are now further complicated by fractures in the allyship between Amhara’s various forces and the Ethiopian federal government. While Amhara forces fought alongside the ENDF throughout the war, the priorities of Amhara’s militias have not always aligned with regional or national governments.
Abiy Ahmed depends on the support of ethnic Amhara leaders and militias whose goal is to reconquer what they consider lost territories—from Tigray to Sudan.
Recent unrest in Amhara region points to a deepening schism among Amhara political elites, which could also destabilize the political underpinnings of Abiy’s federal government.
But in recent months, Amhara leaders and activists have accused Abiy’s government of turning a blind eye to atrocities committed against ethnic Amharas living in the neighbouring Oromiya region and of planning to hand back territory captured from Tigray forces during the war. Thus, they’re afraid of becoming vulnerable to attacks from Tigray and Oromiya after losing regional special forces.
PM Abiy cautioned that the government will take “appropriate law enforcement measures” on those who are “deliberately playing a distractive role” against its implementations.
The Prime Minister weighed in on the matter a day after General Abebaw Tadesse, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) told state and Peru affiliated media that move to dissolve regional special forces was neither “to disarm”, nor “to dismantle” them. Rather “to reorganize” and “to reform” the forces was a “matter of the constitution” whose works has been in the making for the last four years.
In a lengthy four pages statement the Prime Minister released through his social media accounts, PM Abiy explained that the decision was discussed amongst leaders and members of regional special forces in which it was made clear that the process to dissolve and reintegrate special forces into “other security structures should be applied to all special forces of the regions”, with “three options” for the members: to join the Defense forces, the Federal Police or the Regional Police.
He also said that “the issue is not disarmament, but that they will get more training and weapons” and be reintegrated into other security structures “where they can better serve the country.”
The discussions have also identified challenge that there will be elements that will arise to hinder this work. The options to handle were “first by discussing and persuading” and “a law enforcement” to be applied “if there are actors who commit acts beyond this”.
