There are growing indicators that Alexander Lukashenko is preparing for a power transition in Belarus. It appears likely that he is aiming for a controlled and self-managed transfer of power, with guarantees of his immunity. This explains his recent statements, peacekeeping initiatives, and reluctance to open a front in Ukraine.
We believe there is a strong likelihood that Lukashenko is driven by the fear of losing power, either due to Russian actions or the prospect of being drawn into a war that would result in significant losses for Minsk. The preparation for a transition could also be influenced by Lukashenko’s health, although the threat from Moscow seems to be the determining factor in this process.
More on this story: Belarus is going into Moscow-controlled military dictatorship
More on this story: Kremlin plotting to liquidate Lukashenko, seize control of Belarus army
In this scenario, Minsk may attempt to initiate a dialogue with certain Western countries in the coming months, aiming to normalize relations and gain approval for a potential successor. Despite making some aggressive statements, Lukashenko likely opposes the war against Ukraine, understanding that a Ukrainian defeat would lead to increased Russian integration of Belarus into a single state. This would result in his removal from power and the rise of security forces loyal to the Kremlin.
More on this story: Risks growing around Belarus amid Russia’s battlefield failures
More on this story: Signs of Russian provocation being prepared in Belarus to drag Minsk into war
More on this story: Lukashenko’s inauguration: run-up to Anschluss
For Lukashenko, the end of the war in Ukraine on Russia’s terms is an undesirable outcome, as it could lead to a significant deployment of Russian troops on Belarusian territory, effectively a soft annexation that sidelines Lukashenko. This would enable Moscow to establish a so-called security zone on NATO’s eastern border and exert military-political pressure on Poland and Lithuania in the context of the Kaliningrad exclave.There have been previous signs of Kremlin efforts to remove Lukashenko from power in Belarus. In our assessment, Lukashenko’s plan to retain power through a transition is likely not favored by Nikolai Patrushev. Therefore, Lukashenko is betting on the victory of Russia’s so-called “peace party,” which includes figures like Chemezov, Kostin, Gref, and the Kovalchuk brothers, in hopes of preserving Belarus’s conditional sovereignty and ensuring a controlled power succession.
