While economists and financial specialists predict the time of national economics’ recovery and futurologists figure out options for changes in society, the world has been already experiencing irreversible changes. The COVID-19 pandemic consequences and the national governments’ measures to protect populations launched the flywheel for a new global geopolitical relationship system to create. So far, its outlines are blurred but the major trends can be seen today.
Trend No. 1 – ‘Knocked down globalization’. Today, national governments in many countries, ranging from France to South Korea, will stimulate domestic demand. Upon the pandemic the economies of developed countries will become more closed and sustainable. The national economy building and job creation will be a unifier. In many cases the pandemic-caused logistics problems will make investors leave long distance facilities to assemble, produce or tailor. Being even more expensive local regional industrial territories will become safer harbors for industrial investors. It will result in a new wave of struggle for skilled workforce where labor migrants will still play a key role. Moreover, competition escalation in the global market of ‘investment zones’ is also possible. The amount of foreign investments will reduce and the struggle to get them will intensify. Globalization will not stop but it will be knocked down.
Trend No. 2 – ‘Poor-pauper transformation’. After the pandemic the gap between rich and poor countries will become even more considerable. Many resource economies will come out of this crisis extremely weakened and they are unlikely to catch up the losses. The same holds for economies oriented to global equipment assembly or, for example, clothing. In this case they will experience additional crisis phenomena such as democratic remnants wind up and massive human rights violations. The resource economies which have more raw materials reserves and better production conditions than their competitors will be the only ones who will benefit here.
Trend No. 3 – ‘International organizations’ weakening’. The fact that international organizations, called to act as an arbiter, to serve as a platform to exchange views and a tool to assist, are losing their influence has been understood long time ago. However, the crisis phenomena of the last half year have significantly strengthened this trend. From now on major geopolitical and geoeconomic players will stop pretending that the opinion of international organizations does make any interest for them. They will dominate the global play field completely. At the same time, new influential small regional organizations based on economic principles are likely to appear.
Trend No. 4 – ‘Neocolonialism strengthening’. Because of the distress in the economies of the third world countries, ‘key players’ will try to strengthen their own influence in the resource colonies they need. Primarily, we mean China who has been trying to subjugate Africa for a long time. However, the activation of Beijing in sub-Saharan Africa will undoubtedly escalate conflict between China, the United States and France.
Trend No. 5 – ‘Solution search’. The mentioned above trends will satisfy none of key global players. Upon recovery competition between them will intensify that will undoubtedly result in conflict situations in many parts of the planet. Therefore, after the pandemic the world agenda will include creating a new global system of checks and balances. Finding institutional tools for its implementation will be a key issue.
So far it is not clear exactly when the world will recover from the pandemic-caused crisis. It is likely that the predicted ‘second wave’ of the disease may correct these forecasts. However, the more the world economy faces pressure and the stronger national governments feel the consequences of breaking global chains, the more expressly the mentioned trends will be seen in reality.
