Russia has launched a campaign to meddle in the upcoming French presidential vote in April 2022. Pro-active approach by its military intelligence and the news media affiliated with it provides evidence of that, as those outlets are used forPsyOps following an open letter by French army officers to President Emmanuel Macron denouncing the rise of Islamismin the country that has already led it to the verge of a civil war.
The demarche by the French military comes from the row between President Macron and Pierre François Marie Le Jolis de Villiers, former Chief of the Defense Staff. In 2017, Macron made an attempt to cut funding for the army by € 850 million as part of the 2018 restructuring actions aiming to reduce, dissolve, reorganize and redeploy the units. That led to the demarche by Pierre de Villiers and his resounding resignation following the disagreement with the president. The Chief of Defense Staff was supported by the army, and his resignation sparked a backlash in the armed forces. Then de Villiers published a piece in Le Figaro, speaking about the challenges for the army over funding shortages. The General pointed out that the lack of funding takes a toll on 30 thousand French men and officers, and 7 thousand men who patrol the cities following the terrorist attacks in 2015. Aside from that, some missions, mainly abroad, had to be canceled over the budget cuts.
CHARLES PLATIAU/REUTERS.
The demarche by de Villiers was preceded by the piece in the Valeurs Actuelles by his brother, Philippe de Villiers, the leader of the right nationalist Movement for France, a Eurosceptic. The party opposes the policy of multiculturalism and mass migration. On September 11, 2005, Philippe de Villiers was the first to suggest himself officially for the 2007 presidential vote as the candidate promoting national patriotism and opposing progressive Islamization of France.
The leading signer for the open letter to Macron was Christian Piquemal, 80-year-old General and former Commandant of Legion, who lost his perks shortly after being arrested during an anti-emigrant demonstration in 2016. So, the leading signers of the “lettre celebre” are united by common anti-migrant views, and they were offended by the government. In this regard, their efforts comply with their beliefs and are personally motivated.
The military’s demarche obviously comes from an alliance between former Chief of Defense Staff Pierre de Villiers and his brother, Philippe de Villiers. But the media potential the Russians have in France might change the initial plans by the authors of the letter and, thus, strengthening Le Pen’s hand, including by the military.
Her performance did not match the scope of political and financial support provided by the Kremlin for Le Pen. The army was always close to the right and right-conservative political mood. That is why Moscow seeks to milk it for all its worth and boost Le Pen’s rating, due to the objective situation between Macron and the French army. It’s just the internal political competition among the rightists so far. But the Russians might radicalize this process, given the experience of missions to radicalize the yellow vest movement or separatism in Catalonia, Spain.
The authors of that letter use far-right terms and words used by the National Rally of Marine Le Pen.
As the open letter by the military was published, Russia actively blended with the media efforts. Russia’s francophone propaganda channel RT has already started demonstrating support for the authors of the letter by the army.
The Kremlin believes the developments could boost the rating for the far-right Marine Le Pen, openly backed by the Russians. Moscow is confident that the far-rightists in Europe are in a position to initiate disintegration for the European Union and NATO, thus strengthening Russia’s hand and enabling it to ignore the international law, human rights, democracy and build relations with European countries on the principles of force and bribery.
The Russian intelligence, therefore, is looking into consolidation of the far-rightists for the second round of the presidential vote. Russia is highly likely to set up a series of missions to roil in France by committing terrorist attacks, blaming the responsibility on Muslim migrants.
As the security topic is mainly important for the voters of lower-middle-income, the far-rightists might strengthen their hand and consolidate if Russia meddles in the French voting.
The Kremlin has jumped with two feet into the subversion against Macron, staging insolent and offensive efforts against him during the last presidential vote. Though the elections in France are to be held in a year, Russia is launching its meddling, playing on anti-Islamic and anti-immigrant mood.
