Mali’s military junta puts aside democratic path of development. The military, backed by policy-makers from abroad, step up control over the government and set up authoritarian power in the region. The end goal is to build Moscow-orchestrated Syria-style military and authoritarian regime.
A significant coalition of political parties in Mali has rejected the military-led government’s plan for a slow transition to democratic rule. They said the plan is a violation of the transition charter and “has not been discussed in Mali and cannot in any way be the deep desire of the Malian people. The coalition in a statement rejected this “unilateral and unreasonable timetable”.
Mali’s military junta wants to extend its rule for five more years, putting off the next presidential election until 2026 despite a deadline of next month set by West African regional mediators. Under its plan, a constitutional referendum would be held in 2023 and a legislative election would take place in 2025. The presidential election would be put off until 2026.
However, the coalition hopes to proceed with quickly organizing elections.
The army has controlled Mali since August 2020. During that period, the army has staged two coups and postponed elections previously scheduled for next month that it had committed to holding.
France and countries bordering Mali forced Colonel Assimi Goïta’s hand to pledge that Mali would return to democratic civilian rule next month following presidential and legislative elections.
Instead of adhering to that transition plan, Goita staged another coup in May 2021 which forced out interim civilian leaders and pushed back the transition timeline. According to the junta’s proposal, this five-year period is appropriate to conduct the political and institutional reforms leading to the organization of general and referendum elections.
Mali’s junta maintains that elections cannot be held because of deepening insecurity across the country, where Islamic extremists have been fighting a decade-long insurgency.
However, the true reason is the time needed to strengthen positions and receive support from abroad. Russia, from the start, has close ties to those who staged the coup in Mali. That allowed the Kremlin not only to lay the groundwork for ousting French and German soldiers from Mali, but also to bring its own SOF into Mali under the guise of Wagner Group.
That will lay the groundwork for holding election when Russian psyop and civil affairs teams are present in the country, as they will pave the way for the military junta to win the elections.
Germany considers ending its military operations in Mali under UN flag as well as the French military is in the process of winding down operations in Mali after it helped push militants out of power in the north of the country in 2013.
The withdrawal of Western forces will leave a power vacuum that will only contribute to insecurity, as has happened elsewhere such as Afghanistan. This vacuum could be filled with Russian forces.
Shortly afterwards, Russia’s footprint in Mali, including the economic one, is sure to beef up.
Goïta claimed that the cabinet formed by the civilian leaders violated the terms of Mali’s transition charter. Part of that charter also called for elections in February 2022 to fully restore civilian rule. The military government initially indicated it would stick to that timetable but has since demurred.
The government does not control over half of Mali’s territory. Various armed groups are jockeying for power, including groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and the so-called Islamic State.
The 2012 scenario is highly probable to repeat in Mali, when a military coup and failure by Mali soldiers to combat terrorists culminated in the Islamic Azawad.
As French soldiers are to withdraw from Mali and Paris is not likely to return there this year, there are more opportunities for the Kremlin to repeat the Syrian scenario, and make a lodgement in Mali, with military junta under its protection and patronage.
