Editorial paper at Robert Lansing Institute

Japan’s February 8, 2026 Snap Election: Political context, key actors, polling-based outlook, foreign influence, and strategic consequences

Japan votes on February 8, 2026 in a snap lower-house election called by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi only months into her tenure. Polling in major reporting suggests a strong LDP-led showing, with some projections putting…

February 6, 2026elections, Japan

Conflict Propaganda and Disinformation Psyops Warfare

Hybrid War Goes Orbital: Russia’s Threats Against SpaceX and the United States

In early February 2026, SpaceX, in cooperation with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, introduced a “whitelisting” system for Starlink terminals. This move was a response to Russia’s large-scale use of unauthorized Starlink…

February 6, 2026Russia, Ukraine, USA

Democracy Governance

Bangladesh’s February 12, 2026 Parliamentary Elections: Actors, Pre-Vote Environment, Foreign Influence, and Likely Outcomes (Poll-Based)

Bangladesh has first national election since the 2024 uprising and the Yunus-led interim government, and it is widely treated as a “make-or-break” test of whether the transition produces a competitive, legitimate system…

February 5, 2026Bangladesh, elections

Geoeconomics

From Parliament to Parallel Trade: The AfD, Belarus, and the Mechanics of Sanctions Evasion

AfD lawmaker from Saxony Jörg Dornau, who is suspected of violating the ban on exporting goods to Belarus, was summoned for questioning, and searches were conducted at all properties he owns.…

February 5, 2026AfD, Belarus, Germany, Russia, Sanctions

Conflict Governance Terrorism

Death of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi: Likely Perpetrators, Political Logic, and Tribal Consequences

Most plausible motive cluster: spoiler prevention (removing a rallying figure for a “third force” / pro-Gaddafi current) + settling long-standing scores tied to 2011–2017 detention networks and post-2011 militia politics in western Libya. High-risk…

February 4, 2026Libya

- Geopolitics Governance

Africa at the Margins: How U.S. Policy Shifts Create Openings for China and Russia

In early 2026, President Donald Trump nominated Frank W. Garcia Jr., a Republican congressional aide with limited Africa experience, to be Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of African Affairs, the…

February 4, 2026Africa, USA

Geoeconomics Geopolitics Intelligence ops Propaganda and Disinformation

Frexit Without Exit: How Anti-EU Movements Shape French Politics Without Winning Power

A march by supporters of France’s withdrawal from the European Union (“Frexit”) took place in central Paris. On February 2, 2026, more than a thousand people gathered in the French…

February 4, 2026EU, France, Russia

Conflict War crimes Warfare

Whitewashing Aggression Through ‘Peace Talks’: Why Moscow Struck on the Coldest Night

On the night of 03 February 2026, Russia carried out a combined air attack against Ukraine. In total, Russian forces employed 450 strike UAVs, 4 3M22 Zircon anti-ship missiles, 32 Iskander-M / S-400 ballistic missiles, 7 Kh-22 /…

February 3, 2026Russia, Ukraine, USA

Geopolitics Intelligence ops National Security

Parliamentary Contact as a Tool of Influence: How Moscow Will Exploit Anna Paulina Luna Initiative

Republican Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna invited deputies of the State Duma of the Russian Federation to Washington with the declared purpose of holding consultations and discussions on a peaceful settlement of the war in…

February 2, 2026Russia, Ukraine, USA

Geopolitics Warfare

Russia’s Arms Exports to Ethiopia and the Erosion of U.S. Leverage in the Horn of Africa

Russia’s supply of Yak-130 trainer/light attack aircraft and Orion strike UAVs to Ethiopia provides Addis Ababa with additional strike and reconnaissance capabilities without the political conditions that typically accompany Western military assistance. For the United States,…

January 30, 2026Ethiopia, Russia, USA

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