Editorial paper at Robert Lansing Institute

Guinea’s September 21, 2025 Constitutional Referendum: Aims, Issues, Outcomes, and Stakeholders

The junta led by Gen. Mamady Doumbouya has set Sept. 21, 2025 for a constitutional referendum—presented as the first step back to civilian rule, with national elections signaled for December 2025. What’s in…

August 21, 2025Guinea

Conflict Geopolitics Peacekeeping

Russia’s Pressure on Armenia After the Armenia–Azerbaijan Peace Breakthrough and Naryshkin’s Yerevan Overtures

Armenia and Azerbaijan initialed a U.S.-brokered peace deal on August 8, 2025, with Washington and Brussels framing it as a milestone that still requires formal signing and ratification. Moscow reads this as a…

August 21, 2025Armenia, Azerbaijan, Naryshkin, Russia, SVR, USA

Conflict National Security

Russia Circumvents Sanctions Through Chinese Marketplaces

Despite sweeping international sanctions, Russia continues to secure critical equipment for its defense industry by exploiting alternative supply channels. A growing share of this trade flows through Chinese e-commerce platforms,…

August 20, 2025China, Russia, Sanctions

Geopolitics Warfare

Axis of Arms: Russia and Iran’s Expanding Shadow Trade”

Moscow is quietly buying weapons from Tehran, relying on Iran to help it circumvent sanctions and secure flows of dual-use goods, often routed through third countries. Transport and logistics data…

August 19, 2025Iran, Russia

Democracy Governance

Bolivia’s 2025 Elections: Outcomes, Leaders, Consequences, and Political Realignment

Result so far: First round (Aug 17, 2025) points to a runoff on Oct 19 with Rodrigo Paz (centrist) versus Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga (right‑of‑center). MAS (Evo Morales/Luis Arce’s party) suffered a historic collapse amid internal schism and…

August 18, 2025Bolivia

Corruption Economy Geoeconomics Geopolitics

Orban’s Gas Noose for Europe

As the European Union strives to end its dependence on Russian gas, Prime Minister Viktor Orban is not only preserving Hungary’s energy ties with the Kremlin but forging new partnerships…

August 18, 2025Hungary, Kazakhstan, Russia, Uzbekistan

Corruption Geoeconomics Geopolitics

How Russia’s MoD Secures and Exploits Sahel’s Strategic Minerals

Between Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—also known as the Confederation of Sahel States—was officially established in July 2024 as a mutual defense and political. After withdrawing from the Economic Community…

August 15, 2025Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Russia

Geopolitics Governance

Malata Naha: The Basotho Nationalist Surge and the Risks of a Cross-Border Insurgency

Lesotho’s top security officials have warned of a militant group called Malata Naha ("land reclaimers") recruiting Basotho youth and training them on South African farms to foment insurrection or reclaim territory. South…

August 14, 2025Lesotho, South Africa

Coup Governance

Mali After the Arrests: Scenarios for Power, Instability, and Foreign Influence”

Media reports confirm that Mali’s junta has arrested between 20 and 50 soldiers over the past few days for allegedly plotting to topple Colonel Assimi Goïta’s military government. Among those detained are:…

August 14, 2025Mali

Geoeconomics Geopolitics

The Expansion of Russia’s Strategic Alliances and Hybrid Threat Networks

1. Probability of DPRK Army Participation in Ukraine Current Assessment: Low-to-moderate likelihood in the short term (2025) of direct combat deployment inside Ukrainian territory. Moderate likelihood of indirect involvement — logistics, engineering, artillery crews, or military…

August 13, 2025DPRK, Russia, Ukraine

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