Editorial paper at Robert Lansing Institute

Russian strike on a UNESCO World Heritage Site

During the night of June 14–15, 2026, the Russian Armed Forces launched a massive combined strike against Ukraine using attack UAVs and air- and ground-launched missiles. The primary target of…

June 15, 2026Russia, Ukraine

Governance

“The Third-Term Question: Constitutional Reform, Political Stability, and Democratic Risks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo”

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is entering a potentially destabilizing political phase as debate intensifies over constitutional reform that could enable President Félix Tshisekedi to seek a third…

June 12, 2026DRC

Governance influence ops

From “Three Ukraines” to “Two Germanys”: Russian Influence Narratives and the Exploitation of Regional Identities in Europe

The statement by the leader of the Thuringia branch of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), Björn Höcke, claiming a supposed mental and cultural “difference” between East and West Germans has…

June 12, 2026AfD, Germany, Russia

Intelligence ops

Beyond Sanctions Evasion: The Intelligence and Security Dimension of Russia’s Shadow Fleet

Representatives of Russian paramilitary formations are reportedly present aboard tankers belonging to Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet.” Specifically, individuals wearing uniforms are stationed on these vessels despite not being members of…

June 11, 2026Russia, Wagner Group

Geopolitics National Security

Europe’s Intelligence Challenge in an Emerging U.S.-China Bipolar World

Europe is entering a period of strategic uncertainty unprecedented since the end of the Cold War. As geopolitical competition increasingly centers on the rivalry between the United States and China,…

June 10, 2026China, EU, USA

Governance

São Tomé and Príncipe’s 2026 Presidential Election: Political Crisis, Island Democracy, and Strategic Competition in the Gulf of Guinea

São Tomé and Príncipe is scheduled to hold its presidential election on 19 July 2026, with a possible second round on 9 August 2026. The vote comes at a politically sensitive moment. Although…

June 10, 2026elections, Sao Tome and Principe

Geopolitics influence ops

Georgia: The U.S. Audit of Russian and Chinese Influence in the South Caucasus

The U.S. House of Representatives has approved a bill calling for an investigation into the activities of Russian and Chinese intelligence services in Georgia, as well as the preparation of…

June 10, 2026Georgia, Russia, USA

Governance influence ops National Security

EU Enlargement at Risk: Serbia’s Citizenship Policy and the Challenge of Russian Influence

The growing number of Russian citizens acquiring Serbian citizenship and thereby gaining visa-free access to the European Union presents potential security risks for the EU. According to a European Commission…

June 9, 2026EU, Russia, Serbia

Democracy Governance

Algeria’s Parliamentary Elections 2026: Stability, Controlled Competition, and the Future of the Tebboune System

Algeria will hold parliamentary elections on 2 July 2026, marking the first legislative contest since President Abdelmadjid Tebboune consolidated his authority following his re-election and a series of constitutional and electoral reforms. More than…

June 8, 2026Algeria, elections

Economy Geoeconomics Geopolitics National Security

The Potash Trap for Washington: How Minsk and Moscow Are Seeking to Leverage U.S. Interest in the Nezhinsky Potash Project to Undermine the Sanctions Regime

In December 2025 and again in March 2026, the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) eased certain restrictions affecting Belarus's potash sector and selected financial institutions. Reuters…

June 8, 2026Belarus, Russia, Sanctions, USA

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