Editorial paper at Robert Lansing Institute

How dynamically the influence of Putin’s close circle changes

In between 2021 and July 2023, Russia's governance system has experienced serious changes, mainly caused by events that have weakened the leadership position of President Vladimir Putin and hurt reputation…

July 31, 2023Russia

Coup Intelligence ops

Niger coup: Russia likely behind

The coup in Niger that ousted democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum has signs that Russia is most probably involved. First of all, Wagner mercenaries made attempts to gain influence in Niger starting from 2021, as they launched disinformation campaigns to…

July 27, 2023Niger, Russia, Wagner Group

Democracy

Eswatini’s repression is intensifying ahead of the upcoming elections

In the nearest future Eswatini is heading to the polls; the upcoming elections are scheduled for September 29, 2023. However, there is nothing remotely democratic in prospect. The vote is unlikely to change…

July 26, 2023Eswatini

Corruption Democracy Geopolitics Peacekeeping

Corruption at UN allows money flows to finance Putin’s regime in Russia

The UN Under-Secretary-General promotes the interests of a Russian company affiliated with the Kremlin regime. That’s despite sanctions and poor reputation. UN officials are lobbying for continued economic relations with…

July 24, 2023Atul Khare, DRC, Russia, United Nations

Geopolitics Governance

South Africa summit shows Russia’s president-level diplomacy problems

Preparations for the BRICS Summit demonstrate Russia’s vulnerable position and limited powers of the Russian President following the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC). Russia's President Vladimir Putin will not be attending the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg…

July 21, 2023BRICS, Russia, South Africa

Intelligence ops

Russian intelligence exploits gangs in operations abroad

With Russian agent networks destroyed and HUMINT capacity lost following mass expulsion of Russian diplomats, on the one hand, the Western environment has become more favorable for espionage and influence…

July 19, 2023drugs, gangs, Russia, United Kingdom

Geopolitics

Central Africa: The potential risks of foreign contingents’ confrontation in the region

Rwanda's influence growth in the Central African Republic (CAR) - involving military, diplomatic and economic interventions - is coming under increased scrutiny as Bangui's reliance on the support of Russian…

July 17, 2023CAR, Rwanda, Wagner Group

Governance National Security

Prigozhin’s rebellion in Russia: national political consequences analysis

Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellion in Russia led to strengthening of the influence and powers of the FSB group, controlled by Nikolai Patrushev, the Secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council. This group is…

July 14, 2023Patrushev, Prigozhin, Putin, Russia

Democracy Governance Propaganda and Disinformation

El Salvador risks to move towards a more authoritarian future

Salvadoran President's intention to run for president again in 2024 erodes democratic state institutions. It is highly likely that he could become a dictator if he is re-elected. El Salvador’s President Nayib…

July 12, 2023Nayib Bukele, Salvador

Estimates National Security

NATO summit in Vilnius unlikely to avoid the issues of enlarging Alliance or nuclear safety

There are signs that Putin's entourage increasingly resorts to the rhetoric of nuclear or large-scale man-made disaster threats, as things are getting wrong for Moscow in its war in Ukraine.…

July 10, 2023NATO, nuclear weapons

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