Editorial paper at Robert Lansing Institute

South Africa summit shows Russia’s president-level diplomacy problems

Preparations for the BRICS Summit demonstrate Russia’s vulnerable position and limited powers of the Russian President following the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC). Russia's President Vladimir Putin will not be attending the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg…

July 21, 2023BRICS, Russia, South Africa

Intelligence ops

Russian intelligence exploits gangs in operations abroad

With Russian agent networks destroyed and HUMINT capacity lost following mass expulsion of Russian diplomats, on the one hand, the Western environment has become more favorable for espionage and influence…

July 19, 2023drugs, gangs, Russia, United Kingdom

Geopolitics

Central Africa: The potential risks of foreign contingents’ confrontation in the region

Rwanda's influence growth in the Central African Republic (CAR) - involving military, diplomatic and economic interventions - is coming under increased scrutiny as Bangui's reliance on the support of Russian…

July 17, 2023CAR, Rwanda, Wagner Group

Governance National Security

Prigozhin’s rebellion in Russia: national political consequences analysis

Yevgeny Prigozhin's rebellion in Russia led to strengthening of the influence and powers of the FSB group, controlled by Nikolai Patrushev, the Secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council. This group is…

July 14, 2023Patrushev, Prigozhin, Putin, Russia

Democracy Governance Propaganda and Disinformation

El Salvador risks to move towards a more authoritarian future

Salvadoran President's intention to run for president again in 2024 erodes democratic state institutions. It is highly likely that he could become a dictator if he is re-elected. El Salvador’s President Nayib…

July 12, 2023Nayib Bukele, Salvador

Estimates National Security

NATO summit in Vilnius unlikely to avoid the issues of enlarging Alliance or nuclear safety

There are signs that Putin's entourage increasingly resorts to the rhetoric of nuclear or large-scale man-made disaster threats, as things are getting wrong for Moscow in its war in Ukraine.…

July 10, 2023NATO, nuclear weapons

Corruption Governance

Zimbabwe’s escalation risks ahead of elections linked with Mnangagwa regime’s shady deals

Zimbabwe could be hit by a wave of violence ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for August 23, 2023. The upcoming round of destabilization may be related to…

July 7, 2023Belarus, gold, lithium, platinum, Russia, Wagner Group, Zimbabwe

Democracy Governance

Guatemala court intervenes in presidential race and poses grave threat to democracy with far-reaching implications

One of the most turbulent elections in Guatemala’s modern history is questioning democracy in this country. The Constitutional Court has intervened in the election system. Court’s decisions have undermined some voters’…

July 5, 2023Guatemala

Geopolitics Intelligence ops

Russian effort to shape British policy shows success

Russia seeks to split the stance that British political circles share on the war in Ukraine. For that end, Moscow makes efforts to show that some European politicians, unlike official…

July 4, 2023Russia, United Kingdom

Democracy Governance

Elections in Sierra Leone give hope for peaceful future for this state

Sierra Leone successfully passed a significant test for the country’s fledgling democracy amid some violent incidents and problems in transparency and voting. Its result will influence future elections in Liberia, intertribally closely…

June 29, 2023Liberia, Sierra Leone

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