Editorial paper at Robert Lansing Institute

Kremlin to use Germany for EU breakup

Russia has focused on influence operations in Germany to break apart the European Union. Germany is suitable for this effort, as Russia has penetrated deeply into German political parties, with some…

January 26, 2024AfD, Germany, Russia

Intelligence ops

Russia provides funding for the Taliban in Afghanistan

Moscow is likely to keep on funding the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, via military intelligence, as reviews of the data on Russian plane crash in the mountains in Afghanistan indicate.…

January 25, 2024Afghanistan, Russia, Taliban

Democracy Governance

Comoros protests are likely to shrink

Comoros opposition is unlikely to reach presidential reelection through street clashing, as army will quell protests. The risks of an armed uprising are extremely low. Assoumani could be supported by…

January 19, 2024Comoros, Wagner Group

Geopolitics ideology Psyops

Europe’s tacit consent to promotion of pseudo-Russian war philosophy threatens peace across continent

The risks of a war erupting between Russia and the West, as described by Germany’s BILD, are increasing against the backdrop of Western Europe’s tacit consent to popularization of the…

January 17, 2024GRU, Russia

Conflict Geopolitics Terrorism

Iranian IRGC deployed in Yemen to support Houthis

Commanders and advisors from Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are on the ground in Yemen and playing a direct role in Houthi rebel attacks on commercial traffic in the…

January 16, 2024Iran, Yemen

Conflict Geopolitics Terrorism

Rwanda-Burundi tensions threaten regional stability

Border tensions disrupting EAC integration. However, we do not see significant risks of military conflict between two countries yet. Burundi's closure of its border with Rwanda follows Burundi's President Evariste…

January 15, 2024Burundi, DRC, Rwanda

Democracy

Masisi is trying to prevent Ian Khama from balloting

Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) patron, Ian Khama could be banned from taking part in active politics ahead of 2024 general election after Cabinet recently resolved through a Cabinet White Paper that retired…

January 12, 2024Botswana

Democracy Governance

Analysis of Tanzania’s Election Law Revisions

The Tanzania government, has proposed amendments to election laws. However, Political parties in Tanzania are not amused with the proposed changes to electoral laws. However, the first tabling in Parliament of the National Electoral…

January 9, 2024Tanzania

Intelligence ops Propaganda and Disinformation

Italy: Russia’s influence campaign dismantles vast network of Kremlin agents

Russia steps up influence effort by GRU-SVR to minimize risks for Kremlin's image over war crimes in Ukraine, the same model Moscow (GRU) used to spread disinformation about the causes…

January 8, 2024GRU, Italy, Russia

Intelligence ops Propaganda and Disinformation

Kremlin launches campaign to meddle in U.S. election, as GOP ends support for Ukraine

Russia resumes efforts to influence the U.S. presidential election. The Kremlin is planning and has launched a complex campaign to discredit Joe Biden over the Ukrainian subject. Moscow, to that…

January 5, 2024Russia, USA

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