Editorial paper at Robert Lansing Institute

Bolivia’s Presidential Runoff (Oct. 19, 2025): Stakes, Scenarios, and Signals

Bolivia heads to its first-ever presidential runoff on October 19, 2025, after an upset first round ended two decades of MAS dominance. The match-up pits centrist senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira (≈32%) against conservative ex-president…

September 29, 2025Bolivia

Democracy Governance Intelligence ops

Russian-Backed Election Destabilization in Moldova – Intelligence Brief

Parliamentary elections in Moldova are expected to be accompanied by a very high level of violence orchestrated by Russian intelligence, using mercenaries trained in Serbia. In light of this, we…

September 27, 2025Moldova, Russia, Serbia

Geopolitics Intelligence ops

From Transcarpathia to the Kremlin: Budapest’s Quiet War

Hungary continues to conduct intelligence operations on Ukrainian territory, sharing information with Russia and preparing provocations in the Kremlin’s interest. On the morning of Sept. 26, Ukrainian Armed Forces radar…

September 27, 2025Hungary, Russia, Ukraine

Geopolitics Psyops

Inside Moscow’s Alaska ADIZ Playbook

The Alaska ADIZ probes are designed to be cheap for Moscow and expensive for NORAD—operationally, financially, and politically. Treat them as a managed-risk, cost-imposition campaign: lower the collision probability, cut the cost…

September 26, 2025Russia, USA

Democracy Governance

Removal of Presidential Term Limits in Chad: Who Benefits—and What Comes Next

After winning a disputed presidential election in May 2024 and consolidating a parliamentary majority, the presidency holds the legislative votes and coercive capacity to rewrite constitutional guardrails. Removing term limits…

September 25, 2025Chad

Democracy Governance Intelligence ops National Security

The Kiriyenko Blueprint: Turning Moldova’s Election into an Operation

Elections on Sept. 28 will set Moldova’s course: a pro-European future or a return to Russia’s orbit. For years, Moscow has sought to bring Moldova to heel—through the buying of politicians,…

September 25, 2025

Geopolitics National Security Nonproliferation

Russia–North Korea Pact Adds a Dangerous Front for Washington

The foreign ministers of the United States, Japan and South Korea warned of the grave security risks posed by Russia’s deepening military cooperation with North Korea. Moscow’s backing for Pyongyang’s…

September 24, 2025DPRK, Russia, USA

Democracy Intelligence ops National Security

Ballots and Provocations: Moscow’s Election Gambit in Moldova

Less than a week before parliamentary elections, Moldovan authorities conducted 250 searches targeting more than 100 people amid suspicions that Russia is attempting to destabilize the country and sway the…

September 23, 2025Moldova, Russia

Democracy Governance

Guinea Votes on a Controversial New Constitution — What’s at Stake

uinea’s September 21, 2025 constitutional referendum is the pivotal moment of the country’s post-coup “transition.” The draft charter would lengthen presidential terms, create a Senate with seats the president can…

September 22, 2025Guinea

Geopolitics National Security Nonproliferation

The standoff over the New START arms-control treaty underscores a serious threat to the United States from Russia.

With treaty visibility gone, allies relying on the U.S. nuclear guarantee face more uncertainty, while the United States must budget for hedge capabilities and monitoring alternatives (national technical means, open-source,…

September 22, 2025nuclear weapons, Russia, USA

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