Conflict Archives - Page 2 of 25 - Robert Lansing Institute

Threat Assessment: Kremlin Exploitation of Pacifist Networks in Germany

The Kremlin is seeking to exploit German pacifist groups to disrupt the Munich Security Conference. Ahead of the Munich Security Conference scheduled for February 13–15, 2026, Russian intelligence services intend…

February 10, 2026Germany, pacifism, Russia

Conflict Geopolitics National Security Warfare

Russia’s Borderlock in Central Africa: Gold, Gray Zones, and the Erosion of U.S. Leverage

Russia’s actions along the Sudan–CAR border following the gold-mine incident represent not a security response, but a deliberate territorial control operation. By sealing cross-border routes, detaining civilians, and denying access to observers, Moscow…

February 9, 2026CAR, gold, Russia, Sudan, USA

Conflict Propaganda and Disinformation Psyops Warfare

Hybrid War Goes Orbital: Russia’s Threats Against SpaceX and the United States

In early February 2026, SpaceX, in cooperation with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, introduced a “whitelisting” system for Starlink terminals. This move was a response to Russia’s large-scale use of unauthorized Starlink…

February 6, 2026Russia, Ukraine, USA

Conflict Governance Terrorism

Death of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi: Likely Perpetrators, Political Logic, and Tribal Consequences

Most plausible motive cluster: spoiler prevention (removing a rallying figure for a “third force” / pro-Gaddafi current) + settling long-standing scores tied to 2011–2017 detention networks and post-2011 militia politics in western Libya. High-risk…

February 4, 2026Libya

Conflict War crimes Warfare

Whitewashing Aggression Through ‘Peace Talks’: Why Moscow Struck on the Coldest Night

On the night of 03 February 2026, Russia carried out a combined air attack against Ukraine. In total, Russian forces employed 450 strike UAVs, 4 3M22 Zircon anti-ship missiles, 32 Iskander-M / S-400 ballistic missiles, 7 Kh-22 /…

February 3, 2026Russia, Ukraine, USA

Conflict Geopolitics Warfare

Probability of a U.S. strike on Iran (late Jan 2026)

What’s pushing the probability up Visible military posture shift: reporting over the past week describes a major U.S. buildup—carrier presence and additional air assets—plus multi-day U.S. aerial exercises in the region under CENTCOM. …

January 28, 2026Iran, Russia, USA

Conflict Intelligence ops

Russia’s “Ukraine Playbook” in Armenia: Likelihood, Triggers, Actors, and Scenarios

A full-scale Russian invasion of Armenia “like Ukraine 2022” is less likely in the near term because Armenia is geographically constrained, is not Russia’s immediate borderland in the same way Ukraine is, and would risk…

January 21, 2026Armenia, Baltic, Moldova, Russia

Conflict Governance

Wagner’s Blowback in the Central African Republic: Fresh Violence Tests Touadéra’s Third Mandate

Just days after being sworn in for a third term, Central African Republic (CAR) President Faustin-Archange Touadéra is facing a destabilizing spike in violence in the country’s remote south-east, where…

January 12, 2026CAR, Wagner Group

Conflict Propaganda and Disinformation

Valdai as a Negotiating Weapon: Why the Kremlin Invented a “Strike on Putin” and How It Targets Peace Talks

At the end of December 2025, Russian officials claimed that Ukraine launched a massive drone strike — allegedly 91 drones — against Vladimir Putin’s residence near Lake Valdai in the Novgorod…

December 31, 2025Russia, Ukraine, USA

Conflict Governance

Northern Kosovo and Serbia’s strategy of permanent instability

An explosion that was never just about water. When an explosion damaged the Ibër-Lepenc water canal in northern Kosovo on 29 November 2024, it was initially framed as an attack…

December 19, 2025Kosovo, Serbia

Conflict