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Estimates

Lessons to be learned from the deadlock of decolonization of Western Sahara
Posted inGeopolitics Estimates

Lessons to be learned from the deadlock of decolonization of Western Sahara

The Western Sahara conflict arose as a legacy of colonialism. This territory was qualified as a non-self-governing territory by the United Nations in 1963 when Western Sahara was still a…
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April 2, 2020Tags: Ali El Aallaoui, France, Front Polisario, Morocco, Spain, Western Sahara
Psy-ops and disinformation campaign in Italy amid crisis
Posted inEstimates Propaganda and Disinformation Psyops

Psy-ops and disinformation campaign in Italy amid crisis

A group of Russian military arrived in Italy exactly at the moment an active campaign was launched across social networks, calling for the country's withdrawal from the EU. The relevant…
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March 27, 2020Tags: Italy, Russia
MH17 case: path to designating Russia as state sponsor of terrorism
Posted inEstimates Terrorism

MH17 case: path to designating Russia as state sponsor of terrorism

Continued hearings in the case of the downing of Malaysian Airlines passesnger jet flight MH17 over Donbas in July 2014 brings higher risks for Russia's top leadership. In fact, the…
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March 23, 2020Tags: MH17, Netherlands, Russia
Russian Geopolitical Paranoia
Posted inGeopolitics Estimates

Russian Geopolitical Paranoia

Russia sees itself as a long suffering victim of international aggression, therefore it must be ever vigilant for the next attack on its sovereignty. To the Russian people, it is a…
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March 17, 2020Tags: NATO, Russia
Working with the diasporas as an expansion and imperialism tool
Posted inEstimates Intelligence ops

Working with the diasporas as an expansion and imperialism tool

Russia and Serbia aggressively support their compatriots abroad. Their approach to regulate this issue legislatively is quite similar. It reflects a strongly Orthodox martyrdom narrative. The protection of compatriots worldwide is…
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February 28, 2020Tags: Russia, Serbia
Muqtada al-Sadr: America’s Last Opportunity for Lasting Peace in Iraq
Posted inConflict Estimates

Muqtada al-Sadr: America’s Last Opportunity for Lasting Peace in Iraq

Muqtada al-Sadr is arguably the most powerful person in Iraq. Son of the deceased, popular Shiite leader and cleric, Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr, he commands a large and well-armed Iraqi…
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February 28, 2020Tags: David DeBatto, Iran, Iraq, Muqtada Al-Sadr, USA
Republika Srpska’s secession from BiH is impossible technically and pushes the Balkans in a new wave of violence
Posted inConflict Estimates

Republika Srpska’s secession from BiH is impossible technically and pushes the Balkans in a new wave of violence

The technical impossibility of Republika Srpska’s secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina might destabilize the situation in the Balkans that internal and external forces can benefit. Such a scenario may occur…
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February 21, 2020Tags: Balkans, Bosnia and Herzegovina, EU, NATO, Republica Srpska, Russia, Serbia
Naval updates threaten underwater comms systems with sabotage attack
Posted inEstimates Intelligence ops

Naval updates threaten underwater comms systems with sabotage attack

Within last 3 years the Russian Navy deep-sea forces has been developed actively and rapidly and their operations significantly increased. Russia’s spy-ship Yantar (project 22010) is a carrier for mini-submarines…
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February 19, 2020Tags: GRU, GUGI, intelligence, NAVY, Russia
The future after Moldova’s reintegration
Posted inConflict Estimates

The future after Moldova’s reintegration

Moldova reverts to the plans for reintegration of Transnistria separatist republic developed in 2003. This initiative is obviously revived from the outside and does not come from the leadership of this…
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February 14, 2020Tags: Moldova, Russia, Transnistria
PACE crisis raises risk of the EU collapse
Posted inEstimates Governance

PACE crisis raises risk of the EU collapse

The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe is rapidly losing its effectiveness and is becoming a formal platform that imitates protection of democracy, human rights and the rule of…
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February 11, 2020Tags: Council of Europe PA, EU

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