Estimates Archives - Page 4 of 7 - Robert Lansing Institute

Will Italy face a social crisis?

The current Italian coalition government due to the COVID-19 and the strategy adopted to face the crisis is exasperating the social situation in the country and creating the condition for…

April 14, 2020Giuliano Bifolchi, Italy

Estimates Opinion

The Russian Army Versus Social Media Savvy Russian Youth: Has VKontakte Degraded the Readiness of the Russian Army?

Central to Russian foreign and domestic policy is the requirement of a strong army. Since at least the mid-19thcentury several Russian leaders, clerics and philosophers have espoused the notion that…

April 9, 2020David DeBatto, Russia

Estimates Intelligence ops

La Stampa findings on intelligence-gathering nature of Russian mission in Italy confirmed

Russia is officially threatening an Italian newspaper over the report revealing the true objective of the Russian military team deployed in Italy. The analysis of documentary material confirms the conclusions…

April 8, 2020Italy, NATO, Russia

Geopolitics Estimates

Lessons to be learned from the deadlock of decolonization of Western Sahara

The Western Sahara conflict arose as a legacy of colonialism. This territory was qualified as a non-self-governing territory by the United Nations in 1963 when Western Sahara was still a…

April 2, 2020Ali El Aallaoui, France, Front Polisario, Morocco, Spain, Western Sahara

Estimates Propaganda and Disinformation Psyops

Psy-ops and disinformation campaign in Italy amid crisis

A group of Russian military arrived in Italy exactly at the moment an active campaign was launched across social networks, calling for the country's withdrawal from the EU. The relevant…

March 27, 2020Italy, Russia

Estimates Terrorism

MH17 case: path to designating Russia as state sponsor of terrorism

Continued hearings in the case of the downing of Malaysian Airlines passesnger jet flight MH17 over Donbas in July 2014 brings higher risks for Russia's top leadership. In fact, the…

March 23, 2020MH17, Netherlands, Russia

Geopolitics Estimates

Russian Geopolitical Paranoia

Russia sees itself as a long suffering victim of international aggression, therefore it must be ever vigilant for the next attack on its sovereignty. To the Russian people, it is a…

March 17, 2020NATO, Russia

Estimates Intelligence ops

Working with the diasporas as an expansion and imperialism tool

Russia and Serbia aggressively support their compatriots abroad. Their approach to regulate this issue legislatively is quite similar. It reflects a strongly Orthodox martyrdom narrative. The protection of compatriots worldwide is…

February 28, 2020Russia, Serbia

Conflict Estimates

Muqtada al-Sadr: America’s Last Opportunity for Lasting Peace in Iraq

Muqtada al-Sadr is arguably the most powerful person in Iraq. Son of the deceased, popular Shiite leader and cleric, Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr, he commands a large and well-armed Iraqi…

February 28, 2020David DeBatto, Iran, Iraq, Muqtada Al-Sadr, USA

Conflict Estimates

Republika Srpska’s secession from BiH is impossible technically and pushes the Balkans in a new wave of violence

The technical impossibility of Republika Srpska’s secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina might destabilize the situation in the Balkans that internal and external forces can benefit. Such a scenario may occur…

February 21, 2020Balkans, Bosnia and Herzegovina, EU, NATO, Republica Srpska, Russia, Serbia

Estimates