Estimates Archives - Page 2 of 6 - Robert Lansing Institute

The summit in Teheran: A system of alliances goes beyond the interests of the moment

On his second trip since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to Iran, where he met President Ebrahim Raisi and their Turkish counterpart Recep…

July 21, 2022Iran, Russia, Turkey, Turkiye

Estimates Governance

Global security and de-escalation between the West and China depend on Russia’s dismantling

Aggressive war unleashed against Ukraine, an effort to rebuild the empire, economic blackmail of Europe, provoked famine in Africa, and how the Russian people feel about that suggest the only way out - to disintegrate Russia and mould several independent nations on ethnic grounds. This scenario looks promising today, as separatist attitude in some regions of Russia,…

July 13, 2022Russia

Estimates Governance

Lukashenko risks losing sovereignty, army, and power

Russia is seeking to get Belarus into the war in Ukraine, with a view to absorb it and deprive of sovereignty. On June 23, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu called for an enhanced joint defense of Russia and Belarus, including a single regional air defense system.…

June 24, 2022Belarus, Russia

Estimates National Security

Errors in intelligence assessment: Afghanistan and Ukraine

Conservative intelligence assessment with a focus on quantity markers, that excludes ethnic and mental background of the people in war zones, explains why the intelligence agencies miscalculated while evaluating and forecasting developments in Afghanistan and Ukraine. U.S. intelligence agencies are through a large-scale internal review…

May 20, 2022Afghanistan, Ukraine

Estimates National Security

Lobbyists seeking workarounds for China to circumvent sanctions on Russian energy companies

Russian Gazprombank has doubled down on minimizing the impact by the sanctions, searching for ways to circumvent them.Gas buyers have opened accounts in Gazprombank JSC, to pay in rubles for Russian gas. China looks like priority area, as…

May 12, 2022China, Gazprombank, Russia

Estimates Intelligence ops

Unrest in Kazakhstan: potential geopolitical impact

Russia takes advantage of unrest in Kazakhstan to set up a puppet government there and deploy its own soldiers in the country. The unrest started in the west where mainly…

January 7, 2022GRU, Kazakhstan, Russia

Coup Estimates Governance

The possible failure of Sudanese democracy future

Sudan was plunged into further political turmoil when Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok resigned, citing his failure to ensure a peaceful transition to democracy. With his resignation, Sudan appears to have once again…

January 3, 2022Sudan

Estimates Governance

Seeking alternative interlocutors in Russia

As so-called transfer in Russia is oncoming and relations between the Kremlin and the West are strained, possibilities open up for talks with some Russian leaders, likely to seek for…

December 22, 2021Russia

Estimates Governance

Putin’s worsening health set to be a determining factor in Russia’s policy over the next four years

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent move to go on self-isolation, allegedly due to certain people from his entourage having contracted COVID-19, may be associated with something beyond mass fraud in…

September 29, 2021Putin, Russia

Estimates Governance

pandemic-caused major geopolitical trends

While economists and financial specialists predict the time of national economics’ recovery and futurologists figure out options for changes in society, the world has been already experiencing irreversible changes. The…

May 8, 2020coronavirus, Covid-19

Estimates

The summit in Teheran: A system of alliances goes beyond the interests of the moment

Global security and de-escalation between the West and China depend on Russia’s dismantling

Lukashenko risks losing sovereignty, army, and power

Errors in intelligence assessment: Afghanistan and Ukraine

Lobbyists seeking workarounds for China to circumvent sanctions on Russian energy companies

Unrest in Kazakhstan: potential geopolitical impact

The possible failure of Sudanese democracy future

Seeking alternative interlocutors in Russia

Putin’s worsening health set to be a determining factor in Russia’s policy over the next four years

pandemic-caused major geopolitical trends

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