Geopolitics Archives - Robert Lansing Institute

Russia–North Korea Pact Adds a Dangerous Front for Washington

The foreign ministers of the United States, Japan and South Korea warned of the grave security risks posed by Russia’s deepening military cooperation with North Korea. Moscow’s backing for Pyongyang’s…

September 24, 2025DPRK, Russia, USA

Geopolitics National Security Nonproliferation

The standoff over the New START arms-control treaty underscores a serious threat to the United States from Russia.

With treaty visibility gone, allies relying on the U.S. nuclear guarantee face more uncertainty, while the United States must budget for hedge capabilities and monitoring alternatives (national technical means, open-source,…

September 22, 2025nuclear weapons, Russia, USA

Geopolitics National Security

Trump and Lukashenko: Tactical Diplomacy, Strategic Risks

President Trump sent a personal letter to Lukashenko via a special envoy; Washington eased sanctions on Belavia after Minsk released 52 political prisoners; and—for the first time since 2022—U.S. officers…

September 16, 2025Belarus, Russia, USA

Geopolitics Intelligence ops Warfare

Russia–Finland: Prospects of Military Conflict

The existing indicators point to the Kremlin preparing subversive operations against Finland.” Although A deliberate, large-scale Russian conventional attack on Finland remains unlikely in 2025–27, given Russia’s force commitments and degraded conventional capacity.…

September 11, 2025Russia

Geopolitics Intelligence ops

Russian Drone Incursion into Poland – Analytic Overview

Russia continues to probe NATO’s tolerance for boundary violations, acts of sabotage against defense and infrastructure facilities, interference in political processes, and the creation of transport-related threats, including attempts on…

September 10, 2025Poland, Russia, Ukraine

Geopolitics Warfare

Venezuela: Prospects and Risks of a Military Operation

1. Probability of Military Action https://twitter.com/SprinterExpres0/status/1964057963003289936 Assessment: Direct intervention is improbable without a major humanitarian or security crisis that shifts U.S. or regional calculus. 2. Scenarios of Military Operation A. Limited Intervention (Low-Intensity,…

September 8, 2025USA, Venezuela

Geopolitics Governance Intelligence ops

Building a Fifth Column: Russia’s Shift in Moldova’s Political Landscape”

Our earlier assessments are confirmed: the principal decision-making center and coordinator of Russian state bodies and private individuals involved in interfering in Moldova’s parliamentary elections is the Presidential Administration of the…

September 7, 2025Kiriyenko, Moldova, Russia

Conflict Geopolitics Governance

Dodik’s Bid for Putin’s Backing to Break Bosnia: Law, Feasibility, Security Risks, and Russia’s Interests

Milorad Dodik is openly signaling that he will ask Vladimir Putin to support a referendum and, ultimately, independence for Republika Srpska (RS). While the legal path to secession is essentially closed under Bosnia and…

September 1, 2025Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia, Serbia

Conflict Geopolitics National Security

“Always Ready for War”: What Aliyev Meant—and What Comes Next

1) The trigger: Aliyev’s August message On Aug. 21, 2025, President Ilham Aliyev said Azerbaijan “must always be ready for war,” touting expanded special forces, new commando units, upgraded aircraft and fresh fighter-jet…

August 29, 2025Azerbaijan, Russia

Estimates Geopolitics

Russia, Iran, Israel: Assessing Mohammad Sadr’s Claim that Moscow Shared Iranian Air-Defense Secrets with Israel

On Aug 24–25, 2025, Iranian statesman Seyyed Mohammad Sadr (member, Expediency Discernment Council) publicly alleged that Russia provided Israel with intelligence on the locations of Iran’s air-defense sites during the June 13–24, 2025 Iran–Israel war. No independent…

August 27, 2025Iran, Israel, Russia

Geopolitics