Geopolitics Archives - Robert Lansing Institute

Malata Naha: The Basotho Nationalist Surge and the Risks of a Cross-Border Insurgency

Lesotho’s top security officials have warned of a militant group called Malata Naha ("land reclaimers") recruiting Basotho youth and training them on South African farms to foment insurrection or reclaim territory. South…

August 14, 2025Lesotho, South Africa

Geopolitics ideology Intelligence ops

Undermined from Within: Russia’s Masterstroke Exploiting America’s Blindness and Betrayal

The Trump administration’s persistent failure to grasp that Russia will never enter into a genuine, equitable deal with the United States reflects a profound misunderstanding of Moscow’s strategic culture and…

August 13, 2025Russia, USA

Geoeconomics Geopolitics

The Expansion of Russia’s Strategic Alliances and Hybrid Threat Networks

1. Probability of DPRK Army Participation in Ukraine Current Assessment: Low-to-moderate likelihood in the short term (2025) of direct combat deployment inside Ukrainian territory. Moderate likelihood of indirect involvement — logistics, engineering, artillery crews, or military…

August 13, 2025DPRK, Russia, Ukraine

Geopolitics ideology

Trump’s Ineffectiveness in Dealing with Putin: Psychological and Ideological Roots

Donald Trump’s presidency was marked by an unusual personal and political posture toward Vladimir Putin. While other U.S. leaders traditionally combined engagement with firm deterrence, Trump often leaned toward rhetorical praise,…

August 11, 2025Russia, USA

Geopolitics Peacekeeping

Analysis: Outcomes of the Witkoff Visit to Moscow

Overview of the Visit and Its Diplomatic Context U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff conducted a three-hour meeting with President Vladimir Putin on August 6, 2025, just before a Trump-imposed deadline for…

August 7, 2025Russia, Ukraine, USA

Geopolitics Governance Warfare

Belarus’ New Defense Law Proposal: Strategic Alignment with Russia or Prelude to Escalation?

In August 2025, the lower house of the Belarusian parliament received a draft law from the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus titled "On Amendments to Laws on Ensuring…

August 6, 2025Belarus, Russia, Ukraine

Geopolitics National Security

Russia’s Withdrawal from the INF Treaty: Escalation, Threats, and the U.S. Response

On August 4, 2025, the Russian Federation announced the termination of its unilateral moratorium on deploying ground-launched intermediate-range (1,000–5,500 km) and shorter-range (500–1,000 km) missiles. This marks a significant escalation in…

August 5, 2025INF Treaty, NATO, Russia, USA

Geopolitics

Political paralysis and external leverage: The Trump factor in Kosovo-Serbia relations

As of August 8, Kosovo awaits another decision from the Constitutional Court, following the failure of its elected representatives—who emerged from the February 9 elections—to constitute the Assembly after 54 attempts. Until…

August 1, 2025Kosovo, Serbia

Geopolitics Intelligence ops

Nicaragua’s Recognition of Donbas as Russian Territory: Motivations, Alignments, and Consequences

I. IntroductionIn a notable gesture of support for Russia’s international posture, Nicaragua has formally recognized the occupied Donbas territories as Russian. This development reinforces Nicaragua’s pattern of opposing Western-backed resolutions in…

July 31, 2025Nicaragua, Russia, Ukraine

Geopolitics Intelligence ops

UAV Incident in Minsk: A Russian Provocation to Draw Belarus into the War?

On July 29th , an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was downed by Belarusian EW in the Belarusian capital, Minsk. While official sources have remained vague or contradictory, the circumstances surrounding…

July 30, 2025Belarus, Russia