Geopolitics Archives - Robert Lansing Institute

Dodik’s Bid for Putin’s Backing to Break Bosnia: Law, Feasibility, Security Risks, and Russia’s Interests

Milorad Dodik is openly signaling that he will ask Vladimir Putin to support a referendum and, ultimately, independence for Republika Srpska (RS). While the legal path to secession is essentially closed under Bosnia and…

September 1, 2025Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia, Serbia

Conflict Geopolitics National Security

“Always Ready for War”: What Aliyev Meant—and What Comes Next

1) The trigger: Aliyev’s August message On Aug. 21, 2025, President Ilham Aliyev said Azerbaijan “must always be ready for war,” touting expanded special forces, new commando units, upgraded aircraft and fresh fighter-jet…

August 29, 2025Azerbaijan, Russia

Estimates Geopolitics

Russia, Iran, Israel: Assessing Mohammad Sadr’s Claim that Moscow Shared Iranian Air-Defense Secrets with Israel

On Aug 24–25, 2025, Iranian statesman Seyyed Mohammad Sadr (member, Expediency Discernment Council) publicly alleged that Russia provided Israel with intelligence on the locations of Iran’s air-defense sites during the June 13–24, 2025 Iran–Israel war. No independent…

August 27, 2025Iran, Israel, Russia

Conflict Geopolitics Peacekeeping

Moscow’s False Peace: How the Kremlin Exploits Trump’s Sympathy for Putin”

Russia’s leadership is exploiting President Trump’s evident sympathy for Vladimir Putin to erode the image of the United States as the world’s foremost defender of democracy. On August 24, 2025,…

August 25, 2025Russia, Ukraine, USA

Conflict Geopolitics Peacekeeping

Russia’s Pressure on Armenia After the Armenia–Azerbaijan Peace Breakthrough and Naryshkin’s Yerevan Overtures

Armenia and Azerbaijan initialed a U.S.-brokered peace deal on August 8, 2025, with Washington and Brussels framing it as a milestone that still requires formal signing and ratification. Moscow reads this as a…

August 21, 2025Armenia, Azerbaijan, Naryshkin, Russia, SVR, USA

Geopolitics Warfare

Axis of Arms: Russia and Iran’s Expanding Shadow Trade”

Moscow is quietly buying weapons from Tehran, relying on Iran to help it circumvent sanctions and secure flows of dual-use goods, often routed through third countries. Transport and logistics data…

August 19, 2025Iran, Russia

Corruption Economy Geoeconomics Geopolitics

Orban’s Gas Noose for Europe

As the European Union strives to end its dependence on Russian gas, Prime Minister Viktor Orban is not only preserving Hungary’s energy ties with the Kremlin but forging new partnerships…

August 18, 2025Hungary, Kazakhstan, Russia, Uzbekistan

Democracy Geopolitics

Handshake in Alaska: How Trump Gave Putin a Victory at America’s Expense

The meeting between President Donald Trump and President Vladimir V. Putin in Alaska on August 15 ended in colossal reputational losses for the United States, the result of misjudgment and overconfidence…

August 16, 2025Russia, Ukraine, USA

Corruption Geoeconomics Geopolitics

How Russia’s MoD Secures and Exploits Sahel’s Strategic Minerals

Between Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—also known as the Confederation of Sahel States—was officially established in July 2024 as a mutual defense and political. After withdrawing from the Economic Community…

August 15, 2025Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Russia

Geopolitics Governance

Malata Naha: The Basotho Nationalist Surge and the Risks of a Cross-Border Insurgency

Lesotho’s top security officials have warned of a militant group called Malata Naha ("land reclaimers") recruiting Basotho youth and training them on South African farms to foment insurrection or reclaim territory. South…

August 14, 2025Lesotho, South Africa

Geopolitics