Posted inGovernance
Kosovo is facing a political crisis
Kosovo is entering a dangerous and uncertain political terrain if it fails to make a decision by July 27 to constitute the Assembly. The ex officio decision of the Constitutional…
Posted inGovernance Intelligence ops National Security
Borderline Politics: Russian-Linked Actors in Finland and the Campaign to Reopen the Finnish–Russian Border
A small but vocal group of politicians and public figures in Finland, some with Russian citizenship or familial ties to Russia, are actively pushing for the reopening of the Finnish-Russian…
Posted inConflict Governance
Borders, Bombs, and Belief: Southern Syria on the Brink
Since July 13, the Sweida province in Syria — an area with about 500,000 inhabitants, mostly of Druze faith — has been engulfed in fierce conflicts between local Druze militias, Bedouin…
Posted inEstimates Governance
Prospects and Risks of a Third Term for Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa
Following his controversial 2023 re-election, President Emmerson Mnangagwa's allies in ZANU-PF have begun publicly floating the idea of a constitutional amendment to allow him a third term. The political climate…
Posted inGovernance Intelligence ops
The Consolidation of Pro-Russian Forces in Moldova: Implications for the 2025 Elections
Recent developments in Moldova indicate a significant realignment within the country’s pro-Russian political spectrum. Formerly fragmented forces have now coalesced into a unified electoral bloc, potentially reshaping the political landscape…
Posted inGovernance
The Road to Yaoundé: Risks, Power, and Succession in Cameroon’s 2025 Vote”
President Paul Biya has announced for this year presidential election. The announcement came as concern grows about his age and health. Biya, who has ruled since 1982 after Ahmadou Ahidjo's resignation, removed…
Posted inGeopolitics Governance
Prospects of New Caledonian Statehood: Analysis and Strategic Implications
1. Probability of New Caledonia Gaining Statehood Medium-High Probability (50–65%) in the medium term (5–10 years). After the violent unrest in May–June 2024, the long-standing Kanak independence movement regained momentum, especially among younger, marginalized…
Posted inCorruption Geoeconomics Geopolitics Governance
The Budapest Loophole: Viktor Orbán’s Corrupt Empire and Russia’s Backdoor into Europe
Orbán is no longer just a problematic EU member—he has emerged as a direct agent of the Kremlin, wielding bribery and institutions to destabilize the bloc from within. His strategic…
Posted inDemocracy Governance Intelligence ops
Moldova’s 2025 Elections: A Battleground for Influence Between Democracy and Kremlin Interference
Moldova’s 2025 elections are not only a test of democratic resilience but a geopolitical fault line. Russia is positioned to exploit voter fatigue, regional divisions, and political fragmentation. A robust…
Posted inGovernance ideology
Silent Repression: The Kremlin’s Hidden War on Its Own Elite
Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine in February 2022, a disturbing pattern has emerged within the Kremlin's inner architecture: a wave of unexplained deaths among high-ranking officials,…