Belarus Archives - Page 2 of 4 - Robert Lansing Institute

Sapega-Protasevich operation wrap-up points to errors in assessing opposition potential in Russia and Belarus

The pardon of Sofia Sapega in Belarus with her subsequent handover to the Russian delegation headed by the Primorye Territory governor suggests the completion of the joint special operation by…

June 7, 2023Belarus, GRU, Russia

Governance Intelligence ops

Risks growing around Belarus amid Russia’s battlefield failures

Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko's health condition may push the Kremlin toward some radical decisions regarding this country. They will thwart a negative scenario for Moscow where the regime in Minsk changes…

May 13, 2023Belarus, Lukashenko

Coup Intelligence ops

Kremlin plotting to liquidate Lukashenko, seize control of Belarus army

According to sources within the Russian military leadership, the Kremlin has made a decision on a radical “solution” to the issue of dragging Belarus into Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine. On…

November 25, 2022Belarus, Russia

Geopolitics Propaganda and Disinformation

Belgorod’s case: flashback to 1999

With evidence of multiple war crimes by Russia in Ukraine obtained and disclosed, rocket and strike assaults on civilian infrastructure and residential buildings among them, the Kremlin is seeking to…

July 4, 2022Belarus, Russia

Nonproliferation

Minsk joined Russia’s nuclear blackmail

Moscow projects signals of readiness to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus. When Lukashenko talked to Putin in St. Petersburg most recently, he expressed his willingness to upgrade Belarusian Su-25 (Frogfoot) aircraft to carry nuclear weapons. On the one hand, that speaks of the plans…

June 28, 2022Belarus, nuclear weapons, Russia

Estimates Governance

Lukashenko risks losing sovereignty, army, and power

Russia is seeking to get Belarus into the war in Ukraine, with a view to absorb it and deprive of sovereignty. On June 23, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu called for an enhanced joint defense of Russia and Belarus, including a single regional air defense system.…

June 24, 2022Belarus, Russia

Conflict Warfare

Assessment of Russia’s capability to use Belarus territory as military springboard for invasion

The risks of further escalation around Ukraine are rising against the backdrop of the movement of Russian troops into Belarus. The Alexander Lukashenko regime has ultimately lost its independence and…

January 20, 2022Belarus, Russia, Ukraine

Intelligence ops migration Psyops

Belarus-Poland border: conflict resolution scenarios

The risks are high that Russia and Belarus, as those behind a so-called migrant crisis at Polish border, are planning for an armed false flag op to force their way…

November 15, 2021Belarus, GRU, Russia

Conflict Intelligence ops

Is Lukashenko starting a new migrant crisis?

The tension on the border between Poland and Belarus is growing. Bigger and bigger crowds of refugees are sent towards the eastern gates of the European Union. At this point…

November 10, 2021Belarus, Poland, Russia

Intelligence ops migration

Belarus used by Russia for arms trafficking to Europe

Belarus is likely to supply Europe with combat weapon and terrorists. Poland’s Foreign Ministry said it had summoned a Belarusian diplomat over an “intrusion” at the country’s border by uniformed individuals armed with long guns. Stanislaw Zaryn, a spokesman for Poland’s security services, said Polish soldiers…

November 4, 2021Belarus, Poland

Belarus