The technical impossibility of Republika Srpska’s secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina might destabilize the situation in the Balkans that internal and external forces can benefit. Such a scenario may occur if the secession is lobbied by third countries who consider the Balkans as a zone of geopolitical influence and an instrument to make pressure on the European Union.
Milorad Dodik, the Serbian member of the Bosnian Presidency, stated about Republika Srpska’s course to leave Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) on February, 13.
According to his statement, the move allegedly followed breaking the Dayton Agreement by the intervention of an international factor. Dodik believes the first who intervened was the High Representative; the second one is the Constitutional Court.
Since mid-February representatives of Republika Srpska were pulled out of the central state institutions followed a ruling by the Constitutional Court that, in their opinion, exceeds its authority. In particular, the BiH Constitutional Court ruled that agricultural land became automatically the property of the central Bosnia state rather than its constituent parts (entities: Muslim-Croatian Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Republika Srpska, as well as Brcko District). However, the Serbs believe that in this way they were deprived of the right to manage their land.
Dodik insists that the ruling of the Constitutional Court of BiH breaks the Dayton Agreements granting 49% of the territory to RS and 51% of the land to the BiH Federation. Under the Agreement the state owns only the state border.
Back in 2018, official Belgrade publicly stated that it did not support a referendum in RS fearing of exacerbating ethnic contradictions at its borders that could drag Serbia into a new round of conflict. However, the idea found backup in Russia, in particular, the Russian ambassador to Bosnia who recognized the Bosnian Serbs’ right to a referendum while assuring Sarajevo of understanding its concerns. In RS Russia sees the possibility to strengthen its own negotiating positions with the EU by supporting instability in the Balkans and, thereby, forcing Brussels to ask Moscow to play role as a peace broker. Its strategic goal is the constant destabilization of NATO and the European Union in the Balkans.
Dodik’s rhetoric emphasizes the contradictions between Bosnian Serbs and Bosniaks but tries to position the Serbs as oppressed people and target to eliminate. With the particular focus on the threat the Serbs stress the need to accelerate the secession process. The secession procedure can start at the beginning of April 2020. The leaders of Republika Srpska plan to leave BiH by the spring of 2021. However, there are doubts that these plans will be implemented because the territorial boundary delimitation within the current borders of RS will cause the disagreement of local Muslims and Croats with unpredictable security consequences.
According to the Dayton Peace Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina signed in December 1995 in Paris, the state of BiH consists of two entities (entities). BiH has one of the world’s most complex governmental mechanisms representing interests of three peoples of Bosnia: Serbs, Croats and Bosniaks.
The scenario assessment of RS’s secession from BiH indicates the practical impossibility of achieving the goal due to the peculiarities of local ethnic groups. Ethnic Serbs live together with Croats and Bosniaks in a mixed way. Despite the 1992-1995 war and a significant number of refugees, co-existence of ethnic groups can be seen in most territories. Thus, practically, Republika Srpska cannot be separated from the Muslim-Croatian Federation without the forced relocation of some residents. Moreover, this scenario will inevitably lead to aggravation of ethnic contradictions with a high probability of armed conflict.
Bosnia’s existence is possible only in the international ideology context.
The process of RS’s secession from BiH formally continues the 2006 sabotage when Republika Srpska stopped delegating authority of its autonomy to Sarajevo (prior, about seventy authorities, including the army, had been devolved). Previously, Sarajevo interfered with this process, thereby, slowing down strengthening of RS.
The main aim the leaders of Republika Srpska pursue now is to change the composition of the Constitutional Court and put an end to international presence in BiH, in particular, to terminate the mandates of high representative and foreign judges. Milorad Dodik has been lobbying foreign judges’ exclusion from the Supreme Court for a long time. At one time, understanding that Serbs, Muslims and Croats will not be able to manage their own legal system three foreign judges served on the court as well. Now Sarajevo is trying to use this mechanism to continue the policy of delegation of RS’ authority to the central authorities at BiH level. But Serbs are frustrated over constant efforts aimed at destroying their identity.
Since March 2018, more and more weapons have been were brought in the region. The purchase of thousands of new guns by the Bosnian Serb police raised concerns over the intentions of the separatist-led regional government and deepening Russian influence in a divided and economically depressed nation especially trough Orthodox church. That time there was a shipment of 2,500 to RS automatic rifles from Serbia . The Bosnian Serb authorities defended the arms purchase as necessary for self-defence against potential terrorist attacks. The weapons arrived at a time when Bosnia’s long-term stability is in doubt.
The central Bosnian government in Sarajevo and western diplomats believed that a new heavily armed police unit will be used by the Bosnian Serb separatist leader, Milorad Dodik, to entrench his position. In the longer term they feared that the force could be used to further Dodik’s aims of independence, at the risk of a new war in the region.
