The COVID-19 epidemic has shown how much Italy is vulnerable from a geopolitical viewpoint but the higher risk is unlikely to come from Russia.
The Kremlin-sponsored “From Russia With Love” humanitarian mission sparked a lot of debate throughout the European Union and in the United States itself, prompting the Trump administration to increase the support provided to Italy.
Some Italian newspapers have argued that Russian aid would pose a threat to national security in light of the high presence of military personnel among the staff sent as manpower to some Italian hospitals, and the response from Russian authorities has come very fast.
The US has been trying to make up lost ground by means of several measures, including government level initiatives and the resort to NGOs like the Samaritan’s Purse, the religious right-linked evangelic humanitarian organization which has sent to Rome a huge field hospital and tons of aid.
The Visegrad alliance, America’s stronghold in the Old Continent, has been joining the efforts and volunteer doctors and aid have been sent to Italy from Poland, Hungary and Slovakia.
The crisis which is affecting Italy is very emblematic and tells us many things about the country’s true power status: on paper we’re talking about a G7 and G20 permanent member, EU’s fourth-largest economy and the world’s ninth best healthcare system, but in practice the economy has been stagnating since the 1990s, public spending on everything has been falling down for years – from research and development to education – society is increasingly polarized, and the political class lacks of public trust, foresight and skills.
It is no coincidence that Italy is one of the countries hardest-hit by the COVID19 and has quickly turned into the main theater of China’s mask diplomacy, against the background of similar face-cleansing operations carried out by Cuba, Venezuela, Albania, Egypt and Turkey.
Returning to the main point, that is Russia, it is interesting to underline some facts: the help has been requested by the Italian government, which had previously informed the American administration about it in order to get a “tacit approval”, and both the Kremlin and Palazzo Chigi have rejected publicly and immediately any claim as regard to as the alleged “do ut des” nature of the agreement. According to them, the leitmotiv of “From Russia with love” is mere humanitarianism and no pressure would be exerted over Italy in relation to the possibility of easing the ongoing sanctions-regime.
Maybe it’s true. The Kremlin didn’t succeed in convincing Italy to overcome the anti-Russian standing at the time of Conte I government, that is when the pro-Russian Northern League party held many relevant positions within the government, and it is unlikely to succeed right now – the power is shared by the pro-European Democratic Party and the left-wing anti-system 5 Star Movement (5SM) party, both of them tend to be diffident towards Russia but very friendly with the US and China.
But the point here is not the sanctions-regime, it’s China. According to some prominent Italian political analysts, the Kremlin-sponsored humanitarian mission might be the result of an underground agreement with the US with anti-Chinese purposes.
Indeed, if there’s a player which is betting high on the crisis – and is going to increase its influence over Italy in the post-epidemic – that player is Beijing (Read more here). With dozens of tons of aid and goods sold at very competitive prices since the very beginning of the epidemic in Italy, China is the country which helped the country the most. A countrywide infowar has been also set up to spread Chinese-friendly sentiments, 5SM politicians are launching attacks on the EU while praising the strategic partnership with Beijing, and very importantly China is proving capable of pressuring successfully politicians and media not to make unhappy declarations and not to publish sinophobe articles and services.
Russia’s intervention might be read in this wider context of rivalry-and-collaboration with the US, in light of the common interest to contain Beijing’s ever-growing worldwide influence. The Trump administration’s decision to greenlight the purchase of Russian-made goods in the days which have followed it might be an evidence of this alternative and non-mainstream viewpoint.
If Russia really wants to play the Eurosceptic card it knows – or at least, it should know – that Italy is unreliable: politicians like flirting with Moscow but when it’s about to take a stand, they are firmly loyal to the Euro-Atlantic community and the Northern League’s case is very meaningful as to this regard.
