The recognition of the Kremlin-backed puppet regimes on the territory of the Russian-occupied Donbas ruins the entire global security architecture.
President Putin’s speech before signing the document to recognize the mentioned territories confirmed that his priority is to play tricks with historical processes and question them. Thus, the Kremlin demonstrated the irrational argumentation while searching for reasons to revive the Russian Empire and its borders of the 19th century. The attempts to question the course of historical processes and decisions allow Moscow to manipulate and provide pretexts for territorial changes by violating the UN Charter and International Conventions.
It creates critical risks both for the Baltic countries, Poland, and the Scandinavian countries as well.
Putin’s decision to grant independence to the Donbas territories shows how differs the Kremlin-Donbas approach from the one used while annexing Crimea. Crimea was officially integrated as part of the Russian Federation. However, Moscow’s agenda did not include the same administrative prospects for the LPR and DPR because of having these territories heavily subsidized and seeing no strategic importance for the Kremlin. Although in 2014 the Kremlin insisted on integrating these territories as part of Russia. Turning them back from these prospects and making them as buffer zone Moscow actually proves the formality of the Russian world concept and use of this ideology to raise territorial claims and justify military operations. In addition, the recognition of the LPR and DPR within the declared borders of 2014 gives Russia a green light to expand further to the West and unleash a war in Ukraine on the Tskhinvali scenario with shooting imitation by the Russian group being legalized in Donbas.
However, there is also a high probability that against the background of the Russian population decrease, by 1 million people over the past 2.5 years Russia, will try to use the DPR and LPR human capital as a labor force in favor of its own interests.
Moscow-created crisis in Ukraine camouflaged Russia’s actual occupation of Belarus where Russia had deployed its troops on a permanent base.
Thus, Russia reached the NATO western borders by forming local group to push against the countries of Eastern Europe and continue putting pressure on the border with Poland.
As the threat of large-scale war increase in Europe and Moscow raises the stakes in confrontation, questions the sovereignty of Ukraine and other countries, including NATO members, Russia must be given a serious and harsh response from the democratic community. During the Federation Council meeting on February 21, former Russian President and former Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev compared the decision to recognize the LPR and DPR with the invasion of Georgia in August 2008 in the context that Russia’s actions remained unpunished, and relations with the West were restored within the next 6 years. Thus, the Kremlin is convinced that the current sanction policy of the West will have a short-term character and allow Russia continue destructive activity after a while.
Taking everything into account, as Polish MP Adrian Zandberg says, Russia needs a response giving a signal to the Russian elite that they are not welcome in Europe. The measure package should include cutting Russian oligarchs from luxury real estate and exclusive education services in Europe, and banning Russian financial capital in Western economies as well.
In addition, the situation around Russia’s violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty is an opportunity to improve dialogue with China.
As of now Beijing has opportunities to replace Russia in the geopolitical global model. It is quite reasonable taking into consideration the country’s economy volume and its diplomatic potential. If Russia restarts acting in the international law framework China may strengthen its political position worldwide and demonstrate Beijing’s contribution into improving the global security system. Moreover, it will minimise Moscow’s efforts to discredit China on the Uyghurs, the issue that the Kremlin actively promotes through Psyop influence campaigns.
