Sources close to military intelligence in one of the Central Asian nations indicate that Central Asia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in particular, is about to be destabilized in the next 1-1.5 months.
They say more than 40 facilities and training camps have intensified their activity near Tajikistan border, with more than 5,000 militants from various terrorist groups being there. Social crisis in Afghanistan, amid shortage of food, essential commodities, medicines and lack of professionals in all sectors, makes the Taliban look for popular support.
It was predicted in July 2021 that in case of a crisis the Taliban could resort to military operations abroad to mobilize the people, and to replace economic growth with expansionism. An army of about 150,000 people formed by the Taliban is a sign of that scenario.
There is potential, therefore, that ISIS and Al-Qaeda militants might infiltrate, in April-May, from Badakhshan to destabilize the situation in Tajikistan. Accordingly, they are likely to enter the Ferghana Valley, heading to Kazakhstan and Russia. Things may turn out to be critical for the region if Russia convinces Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan to send some troops to take part in the war against Ukraine under CSTO flag.
It is verified that Islamic State members actively buy false passports of Russia, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan to leave Syria. The most popular passports of Russia, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan cost from five to six thousand dollars.
But the Kremlin’s priority is to occupy Ukraine and overthrow its democratic government as soon as possible.Troop movement from Central Asia to Ukraine, therefore, may jeopardize the regimes of the region, with lots of terrorist agents infiltrated into law enforcement agencies and local governments.
