Russia’s Wagner Group attempted to seize the Chimbolo gold mine in the Central African Republic, which is operated by China’s Gold Cost Group. Nine Chinese nationals were killed in the raid. After the intervention by the Russian embassy in Bangui, which locally coordinates Wagner mercenaries’ cooperation with local authorities, the latter put the blame for the attack on rebels with the Coalition of Patriots for Change. However, the rebels on the same day refuted any involvement in the attack, stating that it was the Russians with the Wagner Group operating in the country who were responsible.
According to verified data, the Russians attacked the mine in order to intimidate the Chinese, who were already operating at that site.
We estimate that the Russians took advantage of the recent abduction of three Chinese by local rebels in the country’s west near the border with Cameroon to run a false flag operation. The reason behind the attack was the mine’s reopening just a few days earlier, which created certain competition for the local mines controlled by the Wagner Group.
The attack was similar in its nature to the events in Syria in 2018, where Russian mercenaries tried to take control of the Conoco oil and gas field, which is said to be one of the richest such sites in the country, along with a refinery owned by Conoco Phillips. The firm, affiliated with Yevgeny Prigozhin, the man formally controlling the Wagner Group, expected to snatch 25% of the plant’s income. The attack on Chimbolo in the Central African Republic confirms the assumption that whenever the Wagner Group operates, the Russians strike shady deals with the local authorities to gain control over natural resource assets in these countries through armed seizure. Further profits are eventually distributed among government officials and companies associated with the Wagner Group and its leaders (Prigozhin, Putin, and the latter’s closest entourage).
It is likely that the Russians are trying to push Chinese investors from African countries, who have become dependent on the Kremlin after the Wagner Group was deployed on their soil. Throughout its operations in the CAR, the group has been accused of massive rights violations, rape, torture, and extrajudicial executions.
The attack on the Chimbolo mine occurred on the eve of China President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow. Thus, it is highly likely that such an initiative came from Yevgeny Prigozhin, who sought to put some pressure on Putin after the Wagner Group chief felt he was being ostracized amid the raging conflict with the Russian defense ministry.
On the other hand, the attack could target the Chinese leader in order to claim his inability to protect his citizens on foreign soil. In this case, the Kremlin could come up with a proposal to take Chinese mines in the Central African Republic under its own protection.
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