The turbulent elections in DRC could accelerate Rwanda-Burundi conflict

The situation in the Great Lakes region of Africa is one of the major Geopolitical Risks that will continue into 2024. We saw evidence of that on December 23, 2023 with another attack taking place.

On that date the Burundian Militant Group Red Tabara launched an attack upon the village of Vugizo which is near the border with the Democratic Republic of the Congo.  The event resulted in the deaths of 20 people; the majority of the victims were children.

 The main actor in this scenario will be Red Tabara group. 

 The RED in Red Tabara is shortened for Resistance pour un Etat de Droit au Burundi or in english Resistance for the Rule of Law in Burundi. The group would first appear  in 2011 and have been based in South Kivu in the Democratic Republic of the Congo since then. They are considered to be the most active of the Burundi Rebel groups with an estimated number of between 500 and 800 fighters currently active.

  It has fought with Congolese troops trying to push it out of its bases in that country and launches cross-border attacks on Burundian targets, primarily in the northern and western border provinces of Cibitoke, Kayanza, Bubanza and Rumonge.RED-Tabara is dedicated to the overthrow of the Burundian government. Since February 12, 2016, Melchiade Biremba has been the leader of the group. He explained the goals of the organization as the same as motives of a Burundian politician Pierre Nkurunziza who entered into rebellion in 1994.

The group has been known to launch sporadic attacks against Burundi since it was founded. Before the December 2023 attack the last documented attack that was attributed to the group took place in early September 2023 when gunmen fired on civilians at the airport serving the capital of Bujumbura. These attacks are the latest in a pattern that would lead some analysts to consider the situation to be a low-level insurgency.

The government in Bujumbura has responded to the activities of the group with the deployment of troops into the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2022 to deal with the various militant groups that are operating in the eastern part of the country. The troops were withdrawn at the end of 2023 when the DRC Government refused to extend the mandate that allowed them to be present  Reports emerged shortly after the Vugizo attack that at least 1,000 Burundian Troops that were engaged against the Congolese Militia M23 were wearing Congolese Army uniforms. It appears that the mission has impacted some of the reactions of the Burundian Government.

Using a tactic similar to what the DRC is using, the Burundian Government is now accusing Rwanda of supporting Red Taraba. Burundian leader, Evariste Ndayishimiye has accused Rwanda of helping the rebel Red Tabara movement. 

During a national broadcast after the attack, Burundian President Evariste Ndaysishimiye was quoted as saying Red Tabara “ are fed, sheltered, hosted and maintained in the terms of logistics and financial means by Rwanda.”  The President would also be quoted further as saying “ I think the future is bleak for this country that is helping them.” These accusations were denied by the Rwandan Government. In a statement the Rwandan Government said “ Rwanda is not associated, in any way, with any Burundian Armed Group.”

Thus, the  war could erupt between the DRC and Rwanda. There is concern that if that conflict breaks out Burundi would then be brought into the conflict. This situation should not be treated as a new conflict. On the contrary this situation should be considered to be an issue from decades ago that has been unresolved and allowed to fester. The turbulent elections that were recently run in the DR Congo with the victory of the Incumbent President Felix Tshishsekedi who has been hostile towards Rwanda could accelerate the timeline towards conflict.