Europe will imminently face Russia-orchestrated active operations involving public unrest. Analysis shows the ongoing protests of Polish farmers are similar to the “Yellow Vests” effort in France, where Russian military intelligence several years ago played an important role in supporting, accompanying, and radicalizing the protest movement.
After the loss of some intelligence assets due the expulsion from the EU member states of Russian intelligence officers operating under diplomatic cover, the Kremlin initially turned to psyops across Europe, which the Russians believed were also performing poorly, having been compromised from their outset.
Therefore, apparently, Moscow decided to shift their focus onto direct action operations, which could lead to a change of governments and influence the results of the upcoming elections to the European Parliament.
We believe that relying on far-right forces in Europe as a main force for promoting Russia’s interests across Europe has not lived up to Moscow’s hopes. The Kremlin’s attempt to engage someone from the left spectrum has also turned out ineffective. Now, based on the fact that EU farmers are perhaps the most pro-active – and at the same time vulnerable – stratum, Moscow seems to have decided to exploit them as leverage to destabilize European governments, orchestrating a conflict between farmers and Brussels officials. We are convinced that the riots in Poland do not target Ukraine as such but rather aim to ultimately lead to Poland’s government stepdown and compromise the EU from within.
It is highly likely that Russia will try to run the scheme of farmer protests in Poland at the EU’s internal borders. At the same time, it is also highly likely that these operations will become further radicalized as Moscow will strive for incitingarmed clashes between protesters and government forces.
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We have seen signs of Russians testing out transportation blockades in the EU in Spain, starting in 2019.
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The Insider outlet released an investigation presenting evidence of connections between “Yellow Vests” and the Russians, including Chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, Leonid Slutsky, who is known to take an active part in assisting military intelligence in its operations on foreign soil.
The ongoing protests involving Poland’s farmers and cargo carriers are also linked to Russia.
The far-right party Confederation of the Polish Crown and its anti-American leader Grzegorz Braun is one of the organizers of the farmer protests in Poland. Brown holds antisemitic beliefs and echoes pro-Russian propaganda narratives. He questioned the presence of a NATO contingent in Poland to defend the country from Moscow.
Brown’s funding sources are still questionable. His party has opened more than 40 bank accounts. The State Election Commission has not yet been informed about the origin of some of the funds.
Brown is surrounded by people who have been expelled from the Confederacy due to the fact that The New Hope right-wing party wants to disassociate itself from too scandalous anti-Ukrainian and pro-Russian figures such as Leszek Sykulski. He is a well-known public figure in Poland. It was him who initiated the anti-war movement, which actually works in favor of Russia as it fuels anti-war actions and discredits the EU. Thу party numbers a lot of Russian agents.
Niezależny Samorządny Związek Zawodowy ‘Solidarność’ (NSZZ ‘Solidarność’ or the Independent Self-governing Trade Union ‘Solidarity’), which has been acting since the days of communist Poland, the Cold War, is also behind the farmer protests. There is a possibility that the organization may still have sleeper cells of Russian agents.
We are convinced that Russia’s key objective is to exert pressure on national governments and create the appearance of political crises within EU member states. The formal mastermind behind the Poland-Ukraine border blockade is Rafal Mekler, who represents the far-right party Confederation of Freedom and Independence in the Lublin Voivodeship. His cargo company Rafał Mekler Transport, together with other companies participating in the blockade (Kam-Trans, Jata-Trans, BOR-TOM, GLT POLSKA, KMS LOGISTYKA, and PEO-TRANS), have earlier repeatedly held rallies demanding that sanctions targeting Russia be lifted. The top man on the Confederation list in the Sejm elections, Ziemowit Przebitkowski, is the former leader of the All-Polish Youth movement, affiliated with the Russian Imperial Movement, which had been recruiting terrorists for Russia-handled projects in eastern Ukraine (the so-called “DPR” and “LPR”). The movement is also tied with the paramilitary right-wing group Zadrużny Krąg – Dywizja Słowiańska, which is known for collaborating with Rusov, a neo-Nazi group that is part of the Russian Army.
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The owner of PEO-Trans, Viktor Gordeyuk, is a Belarus national affiliated with the Belarusian army. The release by Polish farmers of the political appeal to Vladimir Putin screams “Russian military intelligence”. Of course, it would be incorrect to claim that the entire protest movement of Polish farmers has been designed in Russia. However, just like with the “Yellow Vests” case in France, Russia exploited the existing issues to its own advantage through its military intelligence assets. Jumping on the bandwagon on public discontent expressed by various population strata, the Russians are keen on influencing the intensity and radicalism of protests through skillful psyops delivered via controlled media and agents of influence. According to our data, the Russians tend to thoroughly document own links with their human intelligence assets, only to further use these “tapes” as a backup “kompromat” in order to prevent their agents from quitting or flipping coat.
