Editorial paper at Robert Lansing Institute

How Russia’s MoD Secures and Exploits Sahel’s Strategic Minerals

Between Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—also known as the Confederation of Sahel States—was officially established in July 2024 as a mutual defense and political. After withdrawing from the Economic Community…

August 15, 2025Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Russia

Geopolitics Governance

Malata Naha: The Basotho Nationalist Surge and the Risks of a Cross-Border Insurgency

Lesotho’s top security officials have warned of a militant group called Malata Naha ("land reclaimers") recruiting Basotho youth and training them on South African farms to foment insurrection or reclaim territory. South…

August 14, 2025Lesotho, South Africa

Coup Governance

Mali After the Arrests: Scenarios for Power, Instability, and Foreign Influence”

Media reports confirm that Mali’s junta has arrested between 20 and 50 soldiers over the past few days for allegedly plotting to topple Colonel Assimi Goïta’s military government. Among those detained are:…

August 14, 2025Mali

Geoeconomics Geopolitics

The Expansion of Russia’s Strategic Alliances and Hybrid Threat Networks

1. Probability of DPRK Army Participation in Ukraine Current Assessment: Low-to-moderate likelihood in the short term (2025) of direct combat deployment inside Ukrainian territory. Moderate likelihood of indirect involvement — logistics, engineering, artillery crews, or military…

August 13, 2025DPRK, Russia, Ukraine

Intelligence ops migration National Security Psyops

Increased Libya → Belarus Flights: Analysis of Causes, Actors, Timing, and Risks

Since early–mid 2025 authorities and analysts have flagged an unexpected rise in air traffic linking eastern Libya (notably Benghazi) and Minsk. European institutions are alarmed because the pattern resembles earlier…

August 12, 2025Belarus, Libya, Russia

Geopolitics ideology

Trump’s Ineffectiveness in Dealing with Putin: Psychological and Ideological Roots

Donald Trump’s presidency was marked by an unusual personal and political posture toward Vladimir Putin. While other U.S. leaders traditionally combined engagement with firm deterrence, Trump often leaned toward rhetorical praise,…

August 11, 2025Russia, USA

Energy Geoeconomics

Sanctioning Leverage: U.S. Influence Through India’s Russian Oil Trade

Price and discount — Since 2022 Russia has sold crude at a meaningful discount to benchmark grades; Indian refiners bought large volumes to secure low-cost feedstock and protect refining margins. As…

August 8, 2025India, Russia, USA

Geopolitics Peacekeeping

Analysis: Outcomes of the Witkoff Visit to Moscow

Overview of the Visit and Its Diplomatic Context U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff conducted a three-hour meeting with President Vladimir Putin on August 6, 2025, just before a Trump-imposed deadline for…

August 7, 2025Russia, Ukraine, USA

Geopolitics Governance Warfare

Belarus’ New Defense Law Proposal: Strategic Alignment with Russia or Prelude to Escalation?

In August 2025, the lower house of the Belarusian parliament received a draft law from the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus titled "On Amendments to Laws on Ensuring…

August 6, 2025Belarus, Russia, Ukraine

Intelligence ops Propaganda and Disinformation Psyops

How Russian Propaganda Works in Africa: Structure, Operators, and Countermeasures

Russia’s growing presence in Africa has not only been achieved through traditional diplomacy and military cooperation, but also through a wide-ranging propaganda campaign. This information warfare, designed to cultivate pro-Russian…

August 4, 2025Africa, Russia, Wagner Group

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