Posted inGovernance
Kosovo is facing a political crisis
Kosovo is entering a dangerous and uncertain political terrain if it fails to make a decision by July 27 to constitute the Assembly. The ex officio decision of the Constitutional…
Posted inGovernance Intelligence ops National Security
Borderline Politics: Russian-Linked Actors in Finland and the Campaign to Reopen the Finnish–Russian Border
A small but vocal group of politicians and public figures in Finland, some with Russian citizenship or familial ties to Russia, are actively pushing for the reopening of the Finnish-Russian…
Posted inGeopolitics
China and the European Union: The End of Strategic Ambiguity
China’s attempt to maintain a dual posture—supporting authoritarian regimes while seeking deep economic and technological ties with the European Union—is becoming unsustainable. The EU's evolving foreign policy stance, driven by…
Posted inEstimates Governance
Prospects and Risks of a Third Term for Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa
Following his controversial 2023 re-election, President Emmerson Mnangagwa's allies in ZANU-PF have begun publicly floating the idea of a constitutional amendment to allow him a third term. The political climate…
Posted inGovernance Intelligence ops
The Consolidation of Pro-Russian Forces in Moldova: Implications for the 2025 Elections
Recent developments in Moldova indicate a significant realignment within the country’s pro-Russian political spectrum. Formerly fragmented forces have now coalesced into a unified electoral bloc, potentially reshaping the political landscape…
Posted inGeopolitics Intelligence ops National Security
Rising Russian Espionage Activity in Germany: Timing, Tactics, and Threats
Russia has sharply intensified its espionage activity in Germany since 2022. This escalation reflects shifts in Moscow's intelligence priorities amid the war in Ukraine, worsening relations with the West, and…
Wagner Group Atrocities in the Central African Republic — Motives, Parallels, and Risks of Regional Backlash
The killing of local civilians by the Russian Wagner Group near a gold mine in the Central African Republic (CAR) has reignited international scrutiny over Moscow’s extractive activities in Africa.…
Posted inIntelligence ops
Espionage and Distrust Between Russia and Iran — A Comparative Analysis with Chinese Intelligence Activities in Russia
While Russia and Iran publicly portray themselves as strategic partners—especially in shared theaters like Syria—their relationship is characterized by a deep undercurrent of mistrust, particularly in intelligence and security domains. Both…
Posted inEstimates Geopolitics
Why France Is Withdrawing Military Forces from Senegal
France’s decision to withdraw its military forces from Senegal in 2024–2025 marks a major shift in its Africa strategy. This move is driven by a combination of regional, political, and strategic factors, reflecting…
Posted inGeopolitics National Security
China’s Expanding Influence in the Balkans: Strategic Implications of Military Cooperation with Serbia
China's growing footprint in the Balkans has shifted from economic investments to deeper political and military engagement. A recent announcement that Serbian forces will participate in joint military drills on Chinese…