Editorial paper at Robert Lansing Institute

UAV Incident in Minsk: A Russian Provocation to Draw Belarus into the War?

On July 29th , an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was downed by Belarusian EW in the Belarusian capital, Minsk. While official sources have remained vague or contradictory, the circumstances surrounding…

July 30, 2025Belarus, Russia

Geopolitics Governance

Austria’s Neutrality Under Pressure: Toward a Strategic Shift in Security Policy?

Austria’s historic policy of neutrality—enshrined in its 1955 State Treaty and a cornerstone of post-war identity—is now under serious scrutiny. Mounting geopolitical instability, European disillusionment with "neutrality," and the persistent threat…

July 28, 2025Austria, NATO, Russia

Governance

Kosovo is facing a political crisis

Kosovo is entering a dangerous and uncertain political terrain if it fails to make a decision by July 27 to constitute the Assembly. The ex officio decision of the Constitutional…

July 25, 2025Kosovo

Governance Intelligence ops National Security

Borderline Politics: Russian-Linked Actors in Finland and the Campaign to Reopen the Finnish–Russian Border

A small but vocal group of politicians and public figures in Finland, some with Russian citizenship or familial ties to Russia, are actively pushing for the reopening of the Finnish-Russian…

July 25, 2025Finland, NATO, Russia

Geopolitics

China and the European Union: The End of Strategic Ambiguity

China’s attempt to maintain a dual posture—supporting authoritarian regimes while seeking deep economic and technological ties with the European Union—is becoming unsustainable. The EU's evolving foreign policy stance, driven by…

July 24, 2025China, EU

Estimates Governance

Prospects and Risks of a Third Term for Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa

Following his controversial 2023 re-election, President Emmerson Mnangagwa's allies in ZANU-PF have begun publicly floating the idea of a constitutional amendment to allow him a third term. The political climate…

July 23, 2025Zimbabwe

Governance Intelligence ops

The Consolidation of Pro-Russian Forces in Moldova: Implications for the 2025 Elections

Recent developments in Moldova indicate a significant realignment within the country’s pro-Russian political spectrum. Formerly fragmented forces have now coalesced into a unified electoral bloc, potentially reshaping the political landscape…

July 23, 2025Moldova, Russia

Geopolitics Intelligence ops National Security

Rising Russian Espionage Activity in Germany: Timing, Tactics, and Threats

Russia has sharply intensified its espionage activity in Germany since 2022. This escalation reflects shifts in Moscow's intelligence priorities amid the war in Ukraine, worsening relations with the West, and…

July 22, 2025Germany, Russia

Corruption National Security Situation Reports Terrorism

Wagner Group Atrocities in the Central African Republic — Motives, Parallels, and Risks of Regional Backlash

The killing of local civilians by the Russian Wagner Group near a gold mine in the Central African Republic (CAR) has reignited international scrutiny over Moscow’s extractive activities in Africa.…

July 21, 2025CAR, gold, Russia, Wagner Group

Intelligence ops

Espionage and Distrust Between Russia and Iran — A Comparative Analysis with Chinese Intelligence Activities in Russia

While Russia and Iran publicly portray themselves as strategic partners—especially in shared theaters like Syria—their relationship is characterized by a deep undercurrent of mistrust, particularly in intelligence and security domains. Both…

July 18, 2025China, Iran, Russia

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