Editorial paper at Robert Lansing Institute

Threat Assessment: Kremlin Exploitation of Pacifist Networks in Germany

The Kremlin is seeking to exploit German pacifist groups to disrupt the Munich Security Conference. Ahead of the Munich Security Conference scheduled for February 13–15, 2026, Russian intelligence services intend…

February 10, 2026Germany, pacifism, Russia

Conflict Geopolitics National Security Warfare

Russia’s Borderlock in Central Africa: Gold, Gray Zones, and the Erosion of U.S. Leverage

Russia’s actions along the Sudan–CAR border following the gold-mine incident represent not a security response, but a deliberate territorial control operation. By sealing cross-border routes, detaining civilians, and denying access to observers, Moscow…

February 9, 2026CAR, gold, Russia, Sudan, USA

Corruption Geoeconomics National Security

Paks II: Engineering Red Flags and the Political Economy of Nuclear Risk in Central Europe

The ceremonial launch of the first concrete pour for Unit 5 of the Paks II Nuclear Power Plant was staged with great pomp and, according to the plan of Prime Minister Viktor…

February 7, 2026Hungary, Rosatom

Democracy Governance

Japan’s February 8, 2026 Snap Election: Political context, key actors, polling-based outlook, foreign influence, and strategic consequences

Japan votes on February 8, 2026 in a snap lower-house election called by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi only months into her tenure. Polling in major reporting suggests a strong LDP-led showing, with some projections putting…

February 6, 2026elections, Japan

Conflict Propaganda and Disinformation Psyops Warfare

Hybrid War Goes Orbital: Russia’s Threats Against SpaceX and the United States

In early February 2026, SpaceX, in cooperation with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, introduced a “whitelisting” system for Starlink terminals. This move was a response to Russia’s large-scale use of unauthorized Starlink…

February 6, 2026Russia, Ukraine, USA

Democracy Governance

Bangladesh’s February 12, 2026 Parliamentary Elections: Actors, Pre-Vote Environment, Foreign Influence, and Likely Outcomes (Poll-Based)

Bangladesh has first national election since the 2024 uprising and the Yunus-led interim government, and it is widely treated as a “make-or-break” test of whether the transition produces a competitive, legitimate system…

February 5, 2026Bangladesh, elections

Geoeconomics

From Parliament to Parallel Trade: The AfD, Belarus, and the Mechanics of Sanctions Evasion

AfD lawmaker from Saxony Jörg Dornau, who is suspected of violating the ban on exporting goods to Belarus, was summoned for questioning, and searches were conducted at all properties he owns.…

February 5, 2026AfD, Belarus, Germany, Russia, Sanctions

Conflict Governance Terrorism

Death of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi: Likely Perpetrators, Political Logic, and Tribal Consequences

Most plausible motive cluster: spoiler prevention (removing a rallying figure for a “third force” / pro-Gaddafi current) + settling long-standing scores tied to 2011–2017 detention networks and post-2011 militia politics in western Libya. High-risk…

February 4, 2026Libya

- Geopolitics Governance

Africa at the Margins: How U.S. Policy Shifts Create Openings for China and Russia

In early 2026, President Donald Trump nominated Frank W. Garcia Jr., a Republican congressional aide with limited Africa experience, to be Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of African Affairs, the…

February 4, 2026Africa, USA

Geoeconomics Geopolitics Intelligence ops Propaganda and Disinformation

Frexit Without Exit: How Anti-EU Movements Shape French Politics Without Winning Power

A march by supporters of France’s withdrawal from the European Union (“Frexit”) took place in central Paris. On February 2, 2026, more than a thousand people gathered in the French…

February 4, 2026EU, France, Russia

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