Editorial paper at Robert Lansing Institute

Belarus-Poland border: conflict resolution scenarios

The risks are high that Russia and Belarus, as those behind a so-called migrant crisis at Polish border, are planning for an armed false flag op to force their way…

November 15, 2021Belarus, GRU, Russia

Conflict Energy Geopolitics

Risks of war between Algeria and Morocco are low despite aggressive Algeria’s rhetorics.

Tensions between the Algeria and Morocco have been growing, and Algeria's rhetoric points towards an armed conflict. However there are doubts that an escalation is imminent. Both countries don't have any interest in waging a war on…

November 9, 2021Algeria, Front Polisario, Morocco, Western Sahara

Democracy Governance

Democracy ends: Nicaraguan elections are predetermined

November 7 will serve as a bitter reaffirmation of the Nicaraguan Ortega-Murillo regime’s desire to consolidate a dynastic dictatorship, replacing the one they overthrew in the late 1970s. No notable candidates…

November 5, 2021Nicaragua

Intelligence ops migration

Belarus used by Russia for arms trafficking to Europe

Belarus is likely to supply Europe with combat weapon and terrorists. Poland’s Foreign Ministry said it had summoned a Belarusian diplomat over an “intrusion” at the country’s border by uniformed individuals armed with long guns. Stanislaw Zaryn, a spokesman for Poland’s security services, said Polish soldiers…

November 4, 2021Belarus, Poland

Propaganda and Disinformation

Moscow picks its favorite for the 2022 French presidential elections

Russia stepped up its intervention in French domestic politics ahead of the 2022 presidential elections with the aim to influence their results. Erik Zemmour is going to be the Kremlin's…

November 3, 2021France

Governance

The DPRK leader’s health gain to boost his personality cult growth

The massive weight loss of the North Korean supreme leader has nothing to do with deterioration of his health but with the measures taken at his doctors’ strong recommendations to…

October 29, 2021DPRK

Governance Intelligence ops

Pakistani ISI head replacement might speak for China’s growing foothold amid developments in Afghanistan

The head of Pakistani intelligence was replaced most likely as the foreign actors applied the screws on the Prime Minister's Office. This decision might erode PM Imran Khan's domestic credibility. The director-general of Pakistan’s Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) directorate, which…

October 28, 2021ISI, Pakistan

Geopolitics

Returning the US diplomacy attention to the Balkans

Recent events in the Balkans, particularly in Montenegro, Kosovo – Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina - give the impression to have been a reason for intensified diplomatic activity of the United…

October 27, 2021Balkans, Kosovo, Serbia, USA

Democracy Governance

President Mnangagwa prepares the ground for his one more presidency

Zimbabwean authorities duplicate the policy of Robert Mugabe and some African authoritarian leaders who amended the constitution clause relating to the presidential term limits removal. The coloring country's presidential policy…

October 27, 2021Zimbabwe

Coup Democracy

The coup in Sudan: more external influence and higher domestic tension

RLI's forecast on vulnerability of power in Sudan following the coup failure on September 21, 2021, has been confirmed. The presence of ex-President al-Bashir in Sudan and the external influence…

October 25, 2021Sudan

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