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Conflict

Lebanon: The Liberation of Amer Fakhoury and Hassan Nasrallah
Posted inConflict Situation Reports

Lebanon: The Liberation of Amer Fakhoury and Hassan Nasrallah

Amer Fakhoury is the one who will highlight a crack between Hezbollah's leadership and its base, what we had not been able to see in all the years of the…
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March 24, 2020Tags: Hezbollah, Lebanon
Muqtada al-Sadr: America’s Last Opportunity for Lasting Peace in Iraq
Posted inConflict Estimates

Muqtada al-Sadr: America’s Last Opportunity for Lasting Peace in Iraq

Muqtada al-Sadr is arguably the most powerful person in Iraq. Son of the deceased, popular Shiite leader and cleric, Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr, he commands a large and well-armed Iraqi…
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February 28, 2020Tags: David DeBatto, Iran, Iraq, Muqtada Al-Sadr, USA
Republika Srpska’s secession from BiH is impossible technically and pushes the Balkans in a new wave of violence
Posted inConflict Estimates

Republika Srpska’s secession from BiH is impossible technically and pushes the Balkans in a new wave of violence

The technical impossibility of Republika Srpska’s secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina might destabilize the situation in the Balkans that internal and external forces can benefit. Such a scenario may occur…
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February 21, 2020Tags: Balkans, Bosnia and Herzegovina, EU, NATO, Republica Srpska, Russia, Serbia
The future after Moldova’s reintegration
Posted inConflict Estimates

The future after Moldova’s reintegration

Moldova reverts to the plans for reintegration of Transnistria separatist republic developed in 2003. This initiative is obviously revived from the outside and does not come from the leadership of this…
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February 14, 2020Tags: Moldova, Russia, Transnistria
Cameroonian rebel groups start rivalry for power and access to finances
Posted inConflict Situation Reports

Cameroonian rebel groups start rivalry for power and access to finances

Internal rivalry for power among the separatist groups in Cameroon caused clashes between them and played into the hands of the military. Clashes between Cameroon’s rebel groups have intensified in the…
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January 24, 2020Tags: Cameroon
Russia is ready to change a political player in Abkhazia whose clans struggle for financial aid
Posted inConflict Situation Reports

Russia is ready to change a political player in Abkhazia whose clans struggle for financial aid

The political crisis in the self-proclaimed and unrecognized state of Abkhazia, the Caucasus, will not result in its foreign policy changes; however, it reflects the Abkhaz elites’ clans struggling for…
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January 11, 2020Tags: Abkhazia, Russia
In Syria Russia destroyed the Assad opposition resource base rather than fought against the IS
Posted inConflict Situation Reports

In Syria Russia destroyed the Assad opposition resource base rather than fought against the IS

Analyzing the Russian military campaign in Syria it can be suggested that the fight against the IS was not Russia’s key target in Syria within 2015-2019. Attacks on the IS…
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January 6, 2020Tags: ISIS, Russia, Syria
Qaani will continue Soleimani style of Al Quds management but more available for negotiations
Posted inConflict Situation Reports

Qaani will continue Soleimani style of Al Quds management but more available for negotiations

Under Qaani’s leadership, there is likely to be greater continuity than change in the Quds Force. But it is doubtful that Qaani, the bureaucrat can emulate Soleimani’s charismatic leadership.  Supreme Leader Ayatollah…
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January 4, 2020Tags: Iran
Turkish contingent’s departure for Libya to force Ankara and Moscow to reconsider the regional cooperation format
Posted inConflict Situation Reports

Turkish contingent’s departure for Libya to force Ankara and Moscow to reconsider the regional cooperation format

Turkey’s involvement in the Libyan military campaign will intensify competition with Russia who supports the Libyan National Army (LNA) of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar by providing him with weapons and…
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January 3, 2020Tags: Haftar, Libya, Russia, Turkey
US Embassy attack in Baghdad was coordinated with the Iraqi and foreign government
Posted inConflict Situation Reports

US Embassy attack in Baghdad was coordinated with the Iraqi and foreign government

 The attack on the US Embassy in Iraq is indicative of Tehran's hybrid operation involving foreign fighters. On December 31, nearly 10 passenger jets from Iran and several scheduled flights from Beirut…
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January 3, 2020Tags: Hezbollah, Iran, Iraq, Russia, USA

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