Estimates Archives - Robert Lansing Institute

Prospects and Risks of a Third Term for Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa

Following his controversial 2023 re-election, President Emmerson Mnangagwa's allies in ZANU-PF have begun publicly floating the idea of a constitutional amendment to allow him a third term. The political climate…

July 23, 2025Zimbabwe

Estimates Geopolitics

Why France Is Withdrawing Military Forces from Senegal

France’s decision to withdraw its military forces from Senegal in 2024–2025 marks a major shift in its Africa strategy. This move is driven by a combination of regional, political, and strategic factors, reflecting…

July 17, 2025France, Senegal

Conflict Democracy Estimates Governance

Chad on the Edge: Rising Tensions and Their Implications for Regional Stability and Peacekeeping

In the aftermath of contested presidential elections in May 2024 and amid unresolved internal divisions, Chad is facing mounting political and security tensions. The recent consolidation of power by President Mahamat…

June 16, 2025Chad

Conflict Estimates Geopolitics

Rising Tensions Between Thailand and Cambodia: Causes, Scenarios, Consequences, and Foreign Interests

Southeast Asia’s geopolitical landscape is once again being tested as Thailand and Cambodia, two neighboring ASEAN members, find themselves embroiled in increasing bilateral tensions. Rooted in historical grievances, territorial disputes,…

June 9, 2025Cambodia, Thailand

Democracy Estimates Governance

The Future of Uganda: Political Scenarios Amid Museveni’s Election Challenge”

Yoweri Museveni, the long-time president of Uganda, has been in power since 1986. Given his extensive control over the country’s political landscape, there are several factors to consider when assessing…

May 12, 2025Uganda

Conflict Estimates National Security

Russia-provoked border incident in the Baltics goes to a higher level

By declaring the Baltic Sea and the Narva River as Russia’s internal waters, Moscow isapparently preparing to unilaterally redraw its borders with the Baltic and Scandinaviancountries. There is a high…

May 31, 2024Baltic, Estonia, Russia

Estimates National Security Terrorism

Intelligence failure: HAMAS had prepared for war and was waiting for the right opportunity, which came on October 7.

Since October 7, 2024, when Israel was caught off guard by a sudden and highly damaging attack from Hamas, more information has surfaced regarding why there was no prior warning…

March 15, 2024HAMAS, Israel, Yahya Sinwar

Conflict Estimates National Security

Iran will react or not after the killing of its general in Syria

When Imad Mughniyeh was killed in Damascus in February 2008, the reverberations of that execution extended beyond the region. It was not about a minor figure. Wherever he went, in…

December 28, 2023HAMAS, Iran, Israel, Palestine

Conflict Estimates Geopolitics

Estimations: Will Ethiopia and Eritrea start military conflict over Red Sea ports access

There are emerging fears that all the gains made five years ago toward Ethiopia and Eritrea peace could soon be in jeopardy. Prime Minister Abiy said that Ethiopia deserves a port on the Red Sea of…

November 17, 2023Eritrea, Ethiopia

Estimates National Security

NATO summit in Vilnius unlikely to avoid the issues of enlarging Alliance or nuclear safety

There are signs that Putin's entourage increasingly resorts to the rhetoric of nuclear or large-scale man-made disaster threats, as things are getting wrong for Moscow in its war in Ukraine.…

July 10, 2023NATO, nuclear weapons

Estimates