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Estimates

The Future of Uganda: Political Scenarios Amid Museveni’s Election Challenge”
Posted inDemocracy Estimates Governance

The Future of Uganda: Political Scenarios Amid Museveni’s Election Challenge”

Yoweri Museveni, the long-time president of Uganda, has been in power since 1986. Given his extensive control over the country’s political landscape, there are several factors to consider when assessing…
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May 12, 2025Tags: Uganda
Russia-provoked border incident in the Baltics goes to a higher level
Posted inConflict Estimates National Security

Russia-provoked border incident in the Baltics goes to a higher level

By declaring the Baltic Sea and the Narva River as Russia’s internal waters, Moscow isapparently preparing to unilaterally redraw its borders with the Baltic and Scandinaviancountries. There is a high…
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May 31, 2024Tags: Baltic, Estonia, Russia
Intelligence failure: HAMAS had prepared for war and was waiting for the right opportunity, which came on October 7.
Posted inEstimates National Security Terrorism

Intelligence failure: HAMAS had prepared for war and was waiting for the right opportunity, which came on October 7.

Since October 7, 2024, when Israel was caught off guard by a sudden and highly damaging attack from Hamas, more information has surfaced regarding why there was no prior warning…
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March 15, 2024Tags: HAMAS, Israel, Yahya Sinwar
Iran will react or not after the killing of its general in Syria
Posted inConflict Estimates National Security

Iran will react or not after the killing of its general in Syria

When Imad Mughniyeh was killed in Damascus in February 2008, the reverberations of that execution extended beyond the region. It was not about a minor figure. Wherever he went, in…
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December 28, 2023Tags: HAMAS, Iran, Israel, Palestine
Estimations: Will Ethiopia and Eritrea start military conflict over Red Sea ports access
Posted inConflict Estimates Geopolitics

Estimations: Will Ethiopia and Eritrea start military conflict over Red Sea ports access

There are emerging fears that all the gains made five years ago toward Ethiopia and Eritrea peace could soon be in jeopardy. Prime Minister Abiy said that Ethiopia deserves a port on the Red Sea of…
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November 17, 2023Tags: Eritrea, Ethiopia
NATO summit in Vilnius unlikely to avoid the issues of enlarging Alliance or nuclear safety
Posted inEstimates National Security

NATO summit in Vilnius unlikely to avoid the issues of enlarging Alliance or nuclear safety

There are signs that Putin's entourage increasingly resorts to the rhetoric of nuclear or large-scale man-made disaster threats, as things are getting wrong for Moscow in its war in Ukraine.…
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July 10, 2023Tags: NATO, nuclear weapons
Will the French-German Proposal Finally End the Longest Conflict in the Balkans?
Posted inEstimates Opinion

Will the French-German Proposal Finally End the Longest Conflict in the Balkans?

There was a general understanding reached during the previous meeting between Prime Minister Kurti and President Vucic in Brussels over contents of the Franco-German proposal, also known as the EU…
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March 17, 2023Tags: Kosovo, Serbia
Russia’s nuclear arsenal seems grossly exaggerated
Posted inEstimates National Security Nonproliferation

Russia’s nuclear arsenal seems grossly exaggerated

There are well-grounded doubts as to whether Russia has got a combat-ready nuclear arsenal. There’s a good chance it makes the Kremlin speculate on nuclear blackmail, with threats to launch…
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November 9, 2022Tags: nuclear weapons, Russia
Russia’s nuclear threats: risks and responsive options 
Posted inEstimates National Security

Russia’s nuclear threats: risks and responsive options 

Over the past week, the Russian high-rank politicians actively threatened to use nuclear weapons and hints at possibility to apply its nuclear doctrine to the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. In addition,…
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September 28, 2022Tags: nuclear weapons, Russia
The rise and fall of Abazovic
Posted inEstimates Governance

The rise and fall of Abazovic

The inauguration of the head of Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro, last year was a trigger for a non-confidence motion initiated by the then Deputy Prime Minister Dritan Abazovic, which…
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August 12, 2022Tags: Montenegro, Serbia

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