Criminal Networks as Instruments of Hybrid Warfare in Europe
Hybrid warfare refers to the blended use of military and non-military tactics by state or non-state actors to destabilize a target state below the threshold of open war. In Europe,…
Posted inGeopolitics
Russia’s Africa Corps: Wagner’s Successor in Africa (2022–2025)
In 2023, following Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed mutiny and subsequent death, Moscow moved to restructure Wagner’s operations in Africa under direct state control. The result was the creation of the “Africa Corps” – a…
Posted inGeopolitics Intelligence ops
From Transcarpathia to the Kremlin: Budapest’s Quiet War
Hungary continues to conduct intelligence operations on Ukrainian territory, sharing information with Russia and preparing provocations in the Kremlin’s interest. On the morning of Sept. 26, Ukrainian Armed Forces radar…
Posted inGeopolitics Psyops
Inside Moscow’s Alaska ADIZ Playbook
The Alaska ADIZ probes are designed to be cheap for Moscow and expensive for NORAD—operationally, financially, and politically. Treat them as a managed-risk, cost-imposition campaign: lower the collision probability, cut the cost…
Posted inGeopolitics National Security Nonproliferation
Russia–North Korea Pact Adds a Dangerous Front for Washington
The foreign ministers of the United States, Japan and South Korea warned of the grave security risks posed by Russia’s deepening military cooperation with North Korea. Moscow’s backing for Pyongyang’s…
Posted inGeopolitics National Security Nonproliferation
The standoff over the New START arms-control treaty underscores a serious threat to the United States from Russia.
With treaty visibility gone, allies relying on the U.S. nuclear guarantee face more uncertainty, while the United States must budget for hedge capabilities and monitoring alternatives (national technical means, open-source,…
Posted inGeopolitics National Security
Trump and Lukashenko: Tactical Diplomacy, Strategic Risks
President Trump sent a personal letter to Lukashenko via a special envoy; Washington eased sanctions on Belavia after Minsk released 52 political prisoners; and—for the first time since 2022—U.S. officers…
Posted inGeopolitics Intelligence ops Warfare
Russia–Finland: Prospects of Military Conflict
The existing indicators point to the Kremlin preparing subversive operations against Finland.” Although A deliberate, large-scale Russian conventional attack on Finland remains unlikely in 2025–27, given Russia’s force commitments and degraded conventional capacity.…
Posted inGeopolitics Intelligence ops
Russian Drone Incursion into Poland – Analytic Overview
Russia continues to probe NATO’s tolerance for boundary violations, acts of sabotage against defense and infrastructure facilities, interference in political processes, and the creation of transport-related threats, including attempts on…
Posted inGeopolitics Warfare
Venezuela: Prospects and Risks of a Military Operation
1. Probability of Military Action https://twitter.com/SprinterExpres0/status/1964057963003289936 Assessment: Direct intervention is improbable without a major humanitarian or security crisis that shifts U.S. or regional calculus. 2. Scenarios of Military Operation A. Limited Intervention (Low-Intensity,…