Putin ordered his military to put the country’s nuclear deterrence forces into an increased state of readiness. It means that Russia threatens to use weapons of mass destruction in Europe for the first time since the Cuban Crisis. Regardless of the purpose of the strike, radioactive contamination threatens to a part of the territory of the European region
The increased state of readiness means that the nuclear strike can be launched after the authorization of the President of Russia.
The President of Russia, the Minister of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff have nuclear footballs. The strike can be launched after two of the three systems being activated.
Despite the fact that the level of probability of Russia’s nuclear strike is not more than 50%, the Kremlin shows irrational decisions. Thus, evaluations of Putin’s serious destructive psychological changes are indirectly confirmed. The nuclear weapons decision can be made on the data about Russia’s huge losses in Ukraine.
Putin’s decision demonstrates his intention to escalate the conflict and the Kremlin’s attempt to bring the conflict to a wider regional level.
It is unlikely that the United States will be the nuclear target. Most likely, Moscow blackmails the scenario of tactical nuclear strike in East Europe.
The potential of Russia’s nuclear triad is underdog compared with the nuclear triad of NATO. Thus, the probability of a real nuclear strike is reduced and looks just like the Kremlin’s attempt to save himself against the background of sanctions pressure and the threat of Russians troops’ complete defeat in Ukraine and Belarus.
However, getting the new nuclear blackmail message the world democratic community must give a consolidated response with the aim to disarm Russia.
Such a scenario is likely if the Kremlin’s chances for having nuclear arsenal are blown.
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