Europe is entering a period of strategic uncertainty unprecedented since the end of the Cold War. As geopolitical competition increasingly centers on the rivalry between the United States and China, European governments face the prospect of becoming secondary actors in a global order shaped by two competing superpowers.
In this environment, intelligence services are emerging as one of the most critical instruments of state power. The challenge for Europe is no longer limited to monitoring Russian military activities or preventing terrorist attacks. Instead, European intelligence agencies must help policymakers navigate an increasingly fragmented international system characterized by economic coercion, technological competition, information warfare, supply-chain vulnerabilities, cyber conflict, and great-power rivalry.
The fundamental question facing Europe is whether it can maintain strategic autonomy while remaining dependent on the United States for security and increasingly dependent on China for trade and industrial supply chains.
The Return of Bipolar Competition
For three decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, European policymakers operated within a largely unipolar international system dominated by American power. Intelligence assessments focused primarily on regional crises, terrorism, organized crime, and limited state-based threats.
That environment no longer exists. The rise of China, combined with relative American retrenchment and increasing domestic political polarization in the United States, has accelerated the emergence of a new form of bipolar competition. Unlike the Cold War, however, the new bipolarity is not primarily military. It is economic, technological, informational, and industrial.
