Editorial paper at Robert Lansing Institute

Bosnian Serbs’ secession from BiH might be a part of the Kremlin-China multimove game

Russia fuels the conflict in the Balkans in order to divert attention from the situation on its border with Ukraine. The Kremlin believes that escalating the Balkan conflict and attacking…

December 15, 2021Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia

Geopolitics Governance

France risks to lose New Caledonia to China amid ‘no’ referendum results

There are fears that renewed tensions could even spark a return of the kind of violence last seen 30 years ago, before the feuding parties reached successive deals to ensure the island group's…

December 15, 2021China, France, New Caledonia

Nonproliferation Terrorism

TTP’s step-up threatens Pakistani control of its nuclear weapon

Seizure of Afghan territory by Taliban brought safety concern to Pakistan, mostly over its nuclear capacity. Taliban militants in Pakistan declared an end to a month-long ceasefire arranged with the…

December 13, 2021Pakistan, Taliban

Democracy Geopolitics

Libyan elections: red flags and precedents

Despite facing two counts of crimes against humanity, murder and persecution at the International Criminal Court (ICC), allegedly committed in 2011 in Libya, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the fugitive son of the late…

December 8, 2021Libya

Democracy Governance

Ousted President Jammeh seeks security guarantees and influence on President Barrow’s government, following presidential election

Gambian President may face a legal challenge from opposition candidates who rejected the results of elections to bid for a position in a new government and guarantee the security of ousted dictator…

December 7, 2021Gambia

Geopolitics

Putin’s demands could lead to NATO disintegration, disastrous consequences for European security

Russia has succeeded in exerting pressure on the Western powers by threatening to unleash a nuclear war. The threat of a nuclear crisis, which Moscow previously applied against the United…

December 3, 2021NATO, Russia, Ukraine

Governance

New Honduras’ leader to face big challenges as she starts ruling

To maintain stability and prevent further political turbulence, a new Honduras' government should abstain from pursuing ideologically polarized core projects that could backfire by alienating voters, and focus on strengthening democratic institutions. Honduras’ ruling party conceded defeat in…

December 2, 2021Honduras

Intelligence ops migration

Russia breaks Europe’s border from within

Amid continuing migrant crisis at Polish border, Russia turned to spur German government into opening the country for migrants, as it stages public events there. The Kremlin's plan to replicate…

December 1, 2021Germany, GRU, Seebrücke

Geopolitics Governance

Insurgency in Solomon Islands: to push back China’s expansion?

Expansion of the Solomon Islands by China encourages civil unrest in the region, leads to violence, as separatist movements emerge full blown. Riots rock the Pacific Solomon Islands for a…

November 25, 2021China, Solomon Islands, Taiwan

Conflict Intelligence ops

Russian military invasion of Ukraine: Assessment of likelihood and possible scenarios

The U.S. has shared intelligence, including maps, with European allies showing a buildup of Russian troops and artillery in what appears to be a preparation for a rapid, large-scale push…

November 24, 2021Russia, Ukraine, USA

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