Editorial paper at Robert Lansing Institute

Tinubu will face difficult decisions amid winning presidential race

If Tinubu’s result is confirmed, the largest African democracy will have passed one of its most important tests since military rule ended in 1999. His victory come true because of main opposition Peoples…

March 2, 2023Nigeria

Coup Democracy

Assessment of domestic and external risk factors for toppling the government of Chad

The rebels in Chad are likely to brace for destabilizing the government and assassinating the president. The Wall Street Journal, citing a top American official, claims the government of Chad may be overthrown. The…

March 1, 2023Chad, Russia, Wagner Group

Intelligence ops Psyops

Moscow, China stepping up operations in Ireland

A number of pro-Russia anti-war rallies in Europe allowed for identifying a number of political forces that Russia exploits to try to sow splits in Europe and cultivate anti-American moods.…

February 27, 2023China, Ireland, Russia

Governance

Anxiety and uncertainty in Moscow on anniversary of Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine

The processes that are being observed in the Russian president’s entourage suggest a significant upsurge of anxiety in Russia’s military-political leadership. According to our estimates, this anxiety is due to…

February 24, 2023Putin, Russia

Energy Intelligence ops

Sabotage risks to grow for Europe ‘s offshore energy facilities in the second half of 2023

The Russian Intelligence Services are “covertly mapping” the energy infrastructure of the North Sea, in preparation for acts of disruption and sabotage, a new report by the Dutch government reads. The 32-page report was published, ahead…

February 22, 2023Netherlands, Nord Stream-2, Norway, Russia

Intelligence ops Propaganda and Disinformation Psyops

Scale of Kremlin assets’ exposure in U.S.

Russian intelligence has launched an information campaign to accuse the United States of blowing up the Nord Stream gas pipelines, which testifies to the scale and duration of Moscow's infiltration…

February 17, 2023Nord Stream-2, Russia, USA

Intelligence ops National Security

Russian intelligence uses Argentina to channel spies abroad

Russian intelligence has ramped up its use of Argentina to channel the spies, illegal intelligence agents included, to other countries. Moscow takes advantage of Argentina’s visa-free entry for 177 nations,…

February 16, 2023Argentina, Russia

Democracy Governance

Early elections in Serbia, political charade to avoid the EU plan for normalization agreement between Kosova and Serbia

The possibility of a deterioration in relations between two parties that make up Serbia's ruling coalition—the Progressive Party of Serbia, which is led by the country's president, Aleksandar Vucic, and…

February 13, 2023Kosovo, Serbia

Intelligence ops Psyops

Moscow expanding subversive influence operations across Europe

Russia has planned a number of malign influence operations in several European countries in order to create the illusion of pro-Russian sentiments, popular discontent over Russia sanctions and military aid…

February 10, 2023Germany, Portugal, Russia

Governance Terrorism

Rising insecurity in Somalia increases terrorist risks in the region

The dispute over Sool and Sanaag in Somalia provides a potential risk of violent extremist organisation infiltration or utilisation of the area. The longer and more divisive a dispute between Somaliland and…

February 9, 2023Puntland, Somalia, Somaliland

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