Posted inEstimates Governance
What next Italy?
The government of Italian Prime Minister, Mario Draghi managed to gain confidence in the Senate on the evening of Wednesday 20 July, but was unable to stand up. The right-wing…
Posted in- Estimates Geopolitics
The summit in Teheran: A system of alliances goes beyond the interests of the moment
On his second trip since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to Iran, where he met President Ebrahim Raisi and their Turkish counterpart Recep…
Posted inEstimates Governance
Global security and de-escalation between the West and China depend on Russia’s dismantling
Aggressive war unleashed against Ukraine, an effort to rebuild the empire, economic blackmail of Europe, provoked famine in Africa, and how the Russian people feel about that suggest the only way out - to disintegrate Russia and mould several independent nations on ethnic grounds. This scenario looks promising today, as separatist attitude in some regions of Russia,…
Posted inEstimates Governance
Lukashenko risks losing sovereignty, army, and power
Russia is seeking to get Belarus into the war in Ukraine, with a view to absorb it and deprive of sovereignty. On June 23, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu called for an enhanced joint defense of Russia and Belarus, including a single regional air defense system.…
Posted inEstimates National Security
Errors in intelligence assessment: Afghanistan and Ukraine
Conservative intelligence assessment with a focus on quantity markers, that excludes ethnic and mental background of the people in war zones, explains why the intelligence agencies miscalculated while evaluating and forecasting developments in Afghanistan and Ukraine. U.S. intelligence agencies are through a large-scale internal review…
Posted inEstimates National Security
Lobbyists seeking workarounds for China to circumvent sanctions on Russian energy companies
Russian Gazprombank has doubled down on minimizing the impact by the sanctions, searching for ways to circumvent them.Gas buyers have opened accounts in Gazprombank JSC, to pay in rubles for Russian gas. China looks like priority area, as…
Posted inEstimates Intelligence ops
Unrest in Kazakhstan: potential geopolitical impact
Russia takes advantage of unrest in Kazakhstan to set up a puppet government there and deploy its own soldiers in the country. The unrest started in the west where mainly…
Posted inCoup Estimates Governance
The possible failure of Sudanese democracy future
Sudan was plunged into further political turmoil when Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok resigned, citing his failure to ensure a peaceful transition to democracy. With his resignation, Sudan appears to have once again…
Posted inEstimates Governance
Seeking alternative interlocutors in Russia
As so-called transfer in Russia is oncoming and relations between the Kremlin and the West are strained, possibilities open up for talks with some Russian leaders, likely to seek for…
Posted inEstimates Governance
Putin’s worsening health set to be a determining factor in Russia’s policy over the next four years
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent move to go on self-isolation, allegedly due to certain people from his entourage having contracted COVID-19, may be associated with something beyond mass fraud in…