Warfare Archives - Robert Lansing Institute

Russian vs. U.S. Statements on Nuclear Testing: Motives, Legal Fallout, Third-Party Positions, and Escalation Risks

Divergence in posture: Washington has kept to a zero-yield moratorium since 1992 while expanding subcritical(non-explosive) experiments to steward the stockpile; Moscow de-ratified the CTBT in 2023 and, after new U.S. political signals this week, has ordered proposals on…

November 6, 2025China, nuclear weapons, Russia, USA

Conflict Estimates National Security Warfare

Russian Air-Defense Deliveries to Venezuela and the Escalation Risk of U.S.–Venezuela Military Conflict

Russian deployment of new air-defense systems to Venezuela—including Pantsir-S1 and Buk-M2E batteries to reinforce the existing S-300VM (Antey-2500)—has altered the regional security calculus. The systems strengthen Caracas’ deterrence posture yet simultaneously raise miscalculation risks with the United States, which…

November 5, 2025USA, Venezuela

migration Warfare

Indicator of Escalation: Belarus Tests EU Defenses With Coordinated Hybrid Actions

On 2 November 2025, information was published that in October Lithuania recorded the highest number in the past six months of attempted illegal crossings from Belarusian territory—275. Nearly half of…

November 3, 2025Belarus, EU, Russia

Conflict Geopolitics ideology Warfare

Poseidon and the Politics of Fear: Russia’s New Deterrence Doctrine”

Russia is increasingly turning its nuclear tests into a political weapon of pressure against the United States." Russia’s Poseidon (NATO: Kanyon) is an ambitious nuclear-powered unmanned underwater vehicle – essentially a gigantic autonomous…

October 30, 2025Russia, USA

- Conflict Warfare

Hybrid War at the Border: Russia’s Covert Assault on Latvian Sovereignty

Latvia stands on the front line of NATO’s contest with Russian hybrid warfare. The threat is pervasive and evolving: cyber attacks, propaganda, subterfuge, and covert saboteurs can be as damaging in…

October 28, 2025Latvia, Russia

Conflict Geopolitics Terrorism Warfare

Afghanistan–Pakistan Border Clashes, 2025

Intense fighting along the long‐contested Afghanistan–Pakistan frontier broke out in October 2025, marking the worst conflict between the two countries since the Taliban takeover in 2021. Islamabad accused Kabul of…

October 20, 2025Afghanistan, Pakistan

Conflict Intelligence ops National Security Warfare

Russia’s Naval Moves and Hybrid Warfare in the Baltic: the war probability assessment

At present, the Kremlin appears to be repeating its Cold War–era strategy in the Baltic region, manifested through hybrid operations and deliberate provocations aimed at drawing NATO into a conflict. The…

October 16, 2025Baltic, Russia

- Geopolitics Warfare

Chinese Components for Russian Fiber-Optic Drones

The supply of components from China to Russia for the production of fiber-optic-controlled combat drones strengthens the Russian military in its war against Ukraine and creates a range of global risks for the…

October 14, 2025China, Russia, USA

Conflict Geopolitics Intelligence ops National Security Warfare

From Warnings to Warfare: Russia’s Hybrid Offensive Against Moldova’s Westward Turn”

The press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, told the Russian state agency TASS—an outlet often used by Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) for cover operations—that “if Moldova continues its confrontational course…

October 13, 2025Moldova, Russia

Conflict Governance Warfare

From drones to diplomacy: How Kosovo’s military modernization exposes Vučić’s foreign policy contradictions

The arrival of Turkish-made kamikaze drones in Kosovo has triggered a new diplomatic storm in the Balkans, shaking Serbia’s relationship with one of its key economic partners—Turkey. Thousands of Skydagger drones…

October 10, 2025Kosovo, Serbia, Turkiye

Warfare