The claim of Serbian president that the January 16 referendum would be held in the Kosovo territory, for Serbian Constitution changes, has a hidden agenda.
Vucic had also threatened that if referendum will not allowed by the Kosovo authorities, it would lead Kosovo to serious consequences and by these threats, Vucic just revealed that his intention was to only use the actual referendum as a bargaining chip in relation to international community and Kosovo in the next political move. Vucic`s strategy in regard to Kosovo is that he, usually tries to kill two birds with one stone. The first kill is to have the Kosovar government react against the referendum so later it would be used as a bargaining chip in the dialogue process. The second kill is that with demanding the referendum to be held in Kosovo and threats, Vucic mobilizes both Kosovo Serbs and in Serbia in his gain by showing that he is doing his best to ensure “rights for Serbs” in Kosovo and he still has control over the Serbs in the northern parts of Kosovo.
By raising these stakes to a higher level, Vucic also has the collateral kill of showing the power to the EU and international community by his ability to cause tensions in the north which is a hotbed of conflict between Kosovo and Serbia.
The Constitution of Kosovo, applicable laws in Kosovo as well as international law and practice do not recognize the right of one state to hold a referendum in the territory of another sovereign state unless agreed upon by the latter. Meanwhile, Serbia’s provocation against Kosovo’s sovereignty does not end here. Knowing well Vucic’s intentions, he is using the issue of the Serb community in Kosovo as an instrument to achieve his goals in relation to the European Union. Constitutional changes in Serbia are made in order to harmonize the legislation with the European one, in the process of Serbia’s membership in the European Union. These changes are considered by the Serbian opposition as “cosmetic changes”.
Following the international pressure to allow the January 16 referendum in the territory of Kosovo, the Kosovo Institutions issued a joint statement opposing the holding of the referendum within the territory of Kosovo. They did not deny the right to vote to Serbian citizens with dual citizenship. “Kosovo Serb citizens with dual citizenship will have the right to vote in accordance with international standards and practices, by mail and at the Liaison Office” was the Kosovo institutions statement which made clear that the opening of Serbian polling stations within territory of Kosovo, is a violation of Kosovo Constitution and laws, as well as international practices.
The international community and the ambassadors of the QUINT member states pressure on the Kosovo institutions, to allow Serbia referendum, in principle had no bad purpose. Such a thing from two neighboring states could happen with a both parties agreement. But in Kosovo case, this would give legitimacy to Serbian state claims over Kosovo sovereignty. The conflict between Serbia and Kosovo cannot be hidden under the carpet by no one pretending that nothing has happened.
Vucic is at least interested in Kosovo Serbs, whether they want changes to the Constitution of Serbia or not. Actually, their vote does not carry much weight in total. Kosovo Serbs have been repeatedly used by Vucic to cause unrest, possibly to do Vucic favor in developing his day-to-day political game. Through claims such as the referendum issue, Vucic wants to bring back to talks the issue of holding Serbian presidential elections within the territory of Kosovo, in April this year. This would add to the discussion a topic that the Kosovo side is not ready to make a compromise. Another allegation to damage Kosovo’s relations with the international community, in the domain of unwillingness to compromise. Vucic here is using as a card, the statements of Kurti, who during the last elections campaign in Kosovo, who said that talks with Serbia are not next Kurti`s government priority, and he would not compromise with Serbia in any case.
Through such attempts, Vucic intends to establish an influence area outside Serbia, by creating inter-ethnic incidents in North Mitrovica, supporting the Dodik uprising in Republika Srpska, protests by pro-Serb groups in Montenegro and elsewhere, trying to extend its influence in the Balkans. Modeling Russian geopolitics, Vucic is trying to turn Serbia into a small Russia of the Western Balkans. These are Vucic’s appetites to take the primacy of the powerful leader in the Western Balkans. As Russia is trying to extend its influence to the territories of the former Soviet Union, so Serbia is trying to extend its influence to the territories of the former Yugoslavia.
Out of all this saga, the real question is whether Vucic is preparing to setting the scenes for another Russian style intervention in the northern part of Kosovo? The likely scenarios are that Vucic is counting Kosovo government refuses of his demands to show it to the international community as legitimation for his next moves with or without the army. Certainly, his extended hand of political force is already in the parliament and government and his other military hand is right at the border. Will his next move be through the military grade drones bought in China?
