Chain of command failed: Russia’s government seeks to explain why

The latest statement by the Head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service signals about the Kremlin’s weakness and destruction of the Russian vertical of power

During the XIX Meeting of the heads of security agencies and intelligence services of the CIS member states, the Head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Sergei Naryshkin, announced that the US CIA was engaged in create an absolutely virtual, but at the same time supposedly legitimate ‘state’, even having some kind of ‘temporary administration’. As Naryshkin states, on the eve of the presidential elections Western countries are focusing on consolidating the Russian opposition-controlled cells abroad, as well as creating a network of underground anti-government inside Russia.

This statement is one more public appearance by the rector of Russian intelligence, which discredits him as a specialist and intelligence officer, and shows himself as a tool of state propaganda, disinformation and psychological operations.

On the one hand, Naryshkin’s media activity is a result of his agreements with Patrushev as for his future in a new government.

On the other hand, it is possible that in this way Patrushev is discrediting Naryshkin with the aim to show that the latter will no longer be considered as a potential negotiator with the West.

The absurdity of his statement lies in the fact that there is no political opposition in Russia. The parties that are represented in parliament and are in demonstrative opposition to the government are the Kremlin-controlled puppets. Representatives of the real opposition have been arrested and imprisoned. Therefore, at the moment it is impossible to consolidate something that does not exist in the country.

At the same time, the thesis about political opposition abroad may be a trick to legalize the physical elimination of anybody outside Russia who, in the Kremlin’s opinion, may pose a threat to the regime.

We are convinced that Naryshkin’s statement must be seen as a result of the destruction of the vertical power structure in Russia. Having a strong and capable leader, the existence of a government in exile is impossible. This scenario typically happens in the countries where a leader has been overthrown or forced to flee the country after a coup.

We estimate that Naryshkin is trying to protect the regime from being undermined. Perhaps his activity only confirms our previous conclusions about the change in the Russian centers of influence in the context of the acquisition of presidential powers by the Head of the Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev.

It is highly likely that Naryshkin received instructions from Patrushev to prepare the media space to make the West responsible for the imbalance of the internal political system. It can serve as precondition to introduce measures to restrict rights and freedoms in Russia on the eve of the elections and avoid risks of forming the groups that are discontent with the power and authorities redistribution in the country, for instance, the business wing close to Putin, which has lost influence on the state processes within recent months. The federal government plans to demonstrate the public support for the incumbent resident with a result of 80-90%. It is impossible without establishing total control over the information space, including the Internet. We are convinced that starting from 2024, the Russian government will forbid using foreign media platforms and Internet networks.