Truly free and fair elections in Chad is unlikely. All indications are that Chad’s presidential elections will be a highly orchestrated exercise to ensure General Mahamat Déby remains in power.
Chad Junta Leader Deby Itno to Run for President. The interim president has ruled the country since his father died fighting an insurgency in 2021. Mouvement Patriotique du Salut Patriotic Salvation Movement (MPS), the ruling party in Chad, has chosen General Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, son of the former country leader and party founder Idriss Déby Itno, as candidate of the movement for the presidential elections in Chad.
More on this story: Chad to face turmoil after Déby’s death
Déby, 39, was sworn in as the country’s transitional president in 2022 and promised a return to civilian rule and elections, but he subsequently extended the transition by two years.
Chad’s junta leader and interim President Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno announced he intends to run for president, merely three days after his election rival was killed in a reported exchange of fire with security.
Deby Itno has been in power since 2021, after his father Idriss Deby Itno died while fighting rebels.
The younger Deby Itno initially promised a return to civilian rule and elections within 18 months. But he later extended the transitional period, prompting brutally-repressed protests in October 2022, which left dozens killed.
Deby Itno’s presidential bid comes almost unchallenged, after the death of his cousin and prime rival Yaya Dillo, the leader of the opposition Socialist Party Without Borders (PSF). Chad’s prosecution said Dillo died during an exchange of fire with security forces at the PSF headquarters in the capital N’Djamena.
Once a part of the ruling Patriotic Salvation Movement (MPS) party founded by the older Deby, Dillo defected and founded the opposition PSF party. He was a vocal critic of both Debys and was targeted in government raids.
The incident followed an attack on the country’s internal security agency building in which several people were killed. Chadian authorities blamed Dillo and the PSF, prompting a security confrontation at the party’s headquarters.
The PSF accused soldiers of shooting Dillo dead at point-blank range in an “execution,” while authorities said Dillo “opposed his arrest” and fired on security forces. On February 28, 2021 —Chadian forces attempted to arrest the Dillo at his home in N’Djamena for unclear reasons and killed his mother during their assault. Deby will likely win resoundingly and offer opposition members juicy government positions.
We convinced in personal rivalries between Deby and Dillo because of his position that fractured family. Ethnic tensions over who backs the warring Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan might also have caused rifts between the two. The ruling family is from the Zaghawa group, which spreads into Sudan’s Darfur, and which has suffered attacks from RSF-allied militias based on their ethnicity. While Deby backs the RSF, Dillo has opposed that support. Much of the security apparatus in Chad is Zaghawa and dissension over the Sudan issue is a possible trigger for coup plotting. Thus, Deby’s targeting of Dillo also aims to weaken Zaghawa voices opposed to the regime’s policies, and Itno’s presidency. Military loyalists backing Deby. he has successfully coopted most of the country’s many armed groups and part of the political opposition. Combined with French commitments to protect him from armed overthrow, this has brought a measure of security to his regime.
More on this story: Sudan: spike in violence, as Chad risks losing stability
Opposition parties in Chad are condemned the entry of the country’s military ruler into the 2024 presidential race.
The circumstances of Yaya Dillo’s killing are unclear but his violent death highlights the dangers facing opposition politicians in Chad, particularly as elections approach. Probably the government was trying to intimidate him so that he would not run in elections.
These events undermined the efforts needed to ensure a transparent, pluralist, inclusive Deby Itno’s uncle, General Saleh Deby Itno, was arrested in the wake of Wednesday’s events. The uncle had recently defected to Dillo’s PSF party.
Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno is likely to face Succès Masra, the current Prime Minister and top figure of the opposition.
A twist leading into the election year was the appointment of a leading opposition leader, Succès Masra, as the junta’s new prime minister. The popular leader of the reformist Les Transformateurs party that was a key organizer of the October 2022 protests, Masra fled Chad after the military’s violent crackdown. Many from his movement were killed or arrested. The junta subsequently issued an international arrest warrant for Masra.
Chad has long been in the grip of political tensions arising from shifting allegiances and familial and tribal relations within the political elite.We share the conclusions ACFSS that standing in-between Russian-sponsored military governments in the western Sahel and Sudan, Chad may be pulled deeper into regional and international geopolitical dynamics that will further strain its instability in 2024.
