Conflict Archives - Robert Lansing Institute

Manufactured Enemies: The Strategic Logic Behind Niger’s War Talk with France”

A member of Niger's ruling junta has urged his country's citizens to prepare for "war" with France, as relations with the former colonial power hit new lows. Why Now: Strategic…

February 13, 2026France, Niger, Russia

Conflict Geopolitics National Security

Moscow’s Arctic Red Lines: How Russia Could Respond to the Militarisation of Greenland

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that if Greenland is militarized and actions threatening Russia are implemented there, Moscow will take military-technical measures. “Of course, in the event of the militarization of…

February 12, 2026Greenland, Russia, USA

Conflict ideology Intelligence ops Propaganda and Disinformation

Threat Assessment: Kremlin Exploitation of Pacifist Networks in Germany

The Kremlin is seeking to exploit German pacifist groups to disrupt the Munich Security Conference. Ahead of the Munich Security Conference scheduled for February 13–15, 2026, Russian intelligence services intend…

February 10, 2026Germany, pacifism, Russia

Conflict Geopolitics National Security Warfare

Russia’s Borderlock in Central Africa: Gold, Gray Zones, and the Erosion of U.S. Leverage

Russia’s actions along the Sudan–CAR border following the gold-mine incident represent not a security response, but a deliberate territorial control operation. By sealing cross-border routes, detaining civilians, and denying access to observers, Moscow…

February 9, 2026CAR, gold, Russia, Sudan, USA

Conflict Propaganda and Disinformation Psyops Warfare

Hybrid War Goes Orbital: Russia’s Threats Against SpaceX and the United States

In early February 2026, SpaceX, in cooperation with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, introduced a “whitelisting” system for Starlink terminals. This move was a response to Russia’s large-scale use of unauthorized Starlink…

February 6, 2026Russia, Ukraine, USA

Conflict Governance Terrorism

Death of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi: Likely Perpetrators, Political Logic, and Tribal Consequences

Most plausible motive cluster: spoiler prevention (removing a rallying figure for a “third force” / pro-Gaddafi current) + settling long-standing scores tied to 2011–2017 detention networks and post-2011 militia politics in western Libya. High-risk…

February 4, 2026Libya

Conflict War crimes Warfare

Whitewashing Aggression Through ‘Peace Talks’: Why Moscow Struck on the Coldest Night

On the night of 03 February 2026, Russia carried out a combined air attack against Ukraine. In total, Russian forces employed 450 strike UAVs, 4 3M22 Zircon anti-ship missiles, 32 Iskander-M / S-400 ballistic missiles, 7 Kh-22 /…

February 3, 2026Russia, Ukraine, USA

Conflict Geopolitics Warfare

Probability of a U.S. strike on Iran (late Jan 2026)

What’s pushing the probability up Visible military posture shift: reporting over the past week describes a major U.S. buildup—carrier presence and additional air assets—plus multi-day U.S. aerial exercises in the region under CENTCOM. …

January 28, 2026Iran, Russia, USA

Conflict Intelligence ops

Russia’s “Ukraine Playbook” in Armenia: Likelihood, Triggers, Actors, and Scenarios

A full-scale Russian invasion of Armenia “like Ukraine 2022” is less likely in the near term because Armenia is geographically constrained, is not Russia’s immediate borderland in the same way Ukraine is, and would risk…

January 21, 2026Armenia, Baltic, Moldova, Russia

Conflict Governance

Wagner’s Blowback in the Central African Republic: Fresh Violence Tests Touadéra’s Third Mandate

Just days after being sworn in for a third term, Central African Republic (CAR) President Faustin-Archange Touadéra is facing a destabilizing spike in violence in the country’s remote south-east, where…

January 12, 2026CAR, Wagner Group

Conflict