Conflict Archives - Robert Lansing Institute

Russia’s “Ukraine Playbook” in Armenia: Likelihood, Triggers, Actors, and Scenarios

A full-scale Russian invasion of Armenia “like Ukraine 2022” is less likely in the near term because Armenia is geographically constrained, is not Russia’s immediate borderland in the same way Ukraine is, and would risk…

January 21, 2026Armenia, Baltic, Moldova, Russia

Conflict Governance

Wagner’s Blowback in the Central African Republic: Fresh Violence Tests Touadéra’s Third Mandate

Just days after being sworn in for a third term, Central African Republic (CAR) President Faustin-Archange Touadéra is facing a destabilizing spike in violence in the country’s remote south-east, where…

January 12, 2026CAR, Wagner Group

Conflict Propaganda and Disinformation

Valdai as a Negotiating Weapon: Why the Kremlin Invented a “Strike on Putin” and How It Targets Peace Talks

At the end of December 2025, Russian officials claimed that Ukraine launched a massive drone strike — allegedly 91 drones — against Vladimir Putin’s residence near Lake Valdai in the Novgorod…

December 31, 2025Russia, Ukraine, USA

Conflict Governance

Northern Kosovo and Serbia’s strategy of permanent instability

An explosion that was never just about water. When an explosion damaged the Ibër-Lepenc water canal in northern Kosovo on 29 November 2024, it was initially framed as an attack…

December 19, 2025Kosovo, Serbia

Conflict Intelligence ops Psyops

Suspicious death of Jugoimport SDPR representative Radomir Kurtić in Moscow (17 Nov 2025)

On 17 November 2025, Radomir Kurtić, a long-tenured employee and representative of Serbia’s state-owned arms-trade company Yugoimport SDPR, was found dead on a street in Moscow. Serbian services reportedly briefed President Aleksandar Vučić, while Russian investigative…

December 18, 2025Russia, Serbia

Conflict Geopolitics

Sino-Russian Military Convergence: Joint Missile Defense, Strategic Coordination, and the Erosion of U.S. Deterrence”

According to the defense ministries of China and Russia, these drills were allegedly not directed against any “specific third party” and were not intended as a response to the current…

December 8, 2025China, Russia, USA

Conflict Geopolitics National Security

Russia’s Naval Base in Sudan: A Strategic Foothold on the Red Sea Limiting U.S. Operational Freedom Near the Suez Canal

Russia’s negotiations with Sudan to establish a permanent naval facility in Port Sudan represent one of Moscow’s most consequential strategic moves outside the post-Soviet space. A Russian base on the…

December 4, 2025Russia, Sudan, USA

Conflict Geopolitics Governance

The 28-Point Mirage: A Critical Assessment of the “Peace Plan” to End the Russia–Ukraine War through the Lens of Senator Lindsey Graham

The recently leaked 28-point plan to end the Russia–Ukraine war has already generated alarm among U.S. lawmakers — most prominently Senator Lindsey Graham, who has denounced the initiative as strategically incoherent, diplomatically illegitimate,…

November 21, 2025Russia, Ukraine, USA

Conflict War crimes

“Human Hunting” in the Siege of Sarajevo, political networks, paramilitary structures, and alleged Sniper Safaris

The Siege of Sarajevo (1992-1996) remains one of the most prolonged and devastating urban blockades in modern European history. Bosnian Serb forces encircled the city for nearly four years, deploying…

November 18, 2025Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia

Conflict Intelligence ops War crimes

Sarajevo Safari: How the Kremlin Weaponizes Old War Crimes to Discipline Today’s ‘Disloyal’ Allies”

From “brotherhood” to treason: Russia’s punishment of Vučić In spring 2025, Russia’s SVR and MFA publicly accused Serbia of “stabbing Russia in the back” and effectively committing treason by allowing large volumes…

November 17, 2025Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia, Serbia

Conflict