Ryanair FR4978 plane forced landing incident is an act of state air piracy and reflects Russia’s geopolitical interests as of Belarus.
Great Britain shares the same opinion. According to British Foreign Minister Dominic Raab, this kind of action is unlikely to be taken without Moscow’s blessing. The Chairman of the Bundestag’s Foreign Affairs Committee, the spokesman of the ruling Christian Democrats, Norbert Röttgen, also said that it is necessary at least to accept the fact that the state hijack was approved by the Kremlin. Moreover, Belarus got operational support from Russia.
Even the head of the conservatives in the European Parliament, Manfred Weber, considers that the Russian Federation may be partly responsible for the Ryanair plane forced landing in Minsk.
Obviously, the FR4978 aircraft forced landing and arrest of the ex-editor of the opposition Telegram-channel Next Roman Pratasevich could hardly be performed without operational support of agents in Athens who were supposed to spy on him and confirm his boarding. 126 passengers, including Mr.Protasevich and his girlfriend Sofia Sapega, arrived in Minsk from Athens. However, after Protasevich arrest, only 121 passengers flew to Vilnius. Thus, at least 4 people out of 126 stayed on the territory of Belarus; probably, they were the agents who accompanied Protasevich. However, the Belarus KGB does not have wide possibilities to carry out operational and special operations on the territory of Greece.
The Kremlin is the key beneficiary of the Minsk jet incident. It allows Moscow to make Lukashenko an outcast and isolate Belarus by keeping its eastern border with Russia open. The international isolation of Belarus will force Lukashenko to accept the country’s deep integration thereby losing its sovereignty. The Kremlin considers the possibility to appoint Lukashenko as a chairman of the parliament of the new state after being unified with Russia.
We estimate that Moscow has learned lessons from the Soviet Union fall – we see its attempts to restore geopolitical space as in the case of the Russian Empire by limiting the sovereignty and powers of the controlled territories, in contrast to the USSR, where the crisis triggered the disintegration process among republics who had their own vertical of power and readiness to be sovereign. The passenger plane hijack incident happened just before Lukashenko-Putin meeting in Sochi where the parties may announce Belarus’ de facto re-unification with Russia. Lukashenko turns aside Russia’s absorption scenario, as he is afraid of losing power and real risks of being prosecuted for kidnapping, tortures and murders of political opposition representatives. Therefore, the jet forced landing incident gave the Russians’ more points to force Lukashenko to play to the Kremlin’s script.
